obrador | Geo-Mexico, the geography of Mexico

Which political party has the most state governors?

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Feb 162013

Mexican governors are elected for single six-year terms; re-election is not permitted by the Mexican Constitution. The terms of governors in different states overlap; for example, seven of the 32 governors began their term of office in 2012.

The PRI (Partido Revolucionario Institucional, Institutional Revolutionary Party) currently holds 19 of the 32 governorships spread throughout Mexico (states colored red on map), except for the northwest and extreme south. On 1 March 2013, PRI will gain another governorship when Aristoteles Sandoval of PRI replaces the current PAN Governor of Jalisco. Although PRI Presidential candidate, Enrique Peña Nieto, easily won the Mexican Presidency in 2012, of seven new governors inaugurated in 2012, only three were from PRI.

Ex-President Calderón’s PAN (Partido Acción Nacional, National Action Party) is a distant second with seven governorships (blue on map); six after 1 March 2013. Four of the PAN governorships are in the northwest.

The PRD (Partido de la Revolución Democrática, Party of the Democratic Revolution) is third with four governorships (yellow on map). Three of the PRD governors took office in 2012. PRD has held the important governorship of the Mexico City Federal District since 1988.

State governorships, 2010 and 2013

The Governor of Oaxaca (brown on 2013 map) is from the Movimiento Ciudadano (Citizens’ Movement, formerly known as Convergencia or Convergence), which supported López Obrador in the 2006 presidential election. The Governor of Chiapas is from the PVEM (Partido Verde Ecologísta de México; Mexico’s Green Party; green on the 2013 map).

The north-south political divide that we have referred to in some previous posts, including the equivalent map for 2010 shown above, is no longer evident in the current pattern of state governorships.

Related posts:

Mexico’s north-south political divide persists, albeit with minor changes

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Jul 122012

An earlier post discussed the north-south divide apparent in the 2006 presidential election. That year Felipe Calderón of PAN got the most votes in 14 of 17 northern states (blue on the map), while in 13 of 15 southern states Andrés López Obrador of PRD (green) got the most votes. Roberto Madrazo of PRI (pink) did not get the most votes in a single state.

Voting patterns in presidential elections, 2006 and 2012

The voting pattern changed considerably in the 2012 presidential election, but a north-south pattern still emerged. What was somewhat similar in both elections is that López Obrador of PRD retained much of his strength in southern Mexico. In both elections, PRD got most votes in seven southern states: Federal District, Morelos, Tlaxcala, Guerrero, Oaxaca, Tabasco and Quintana Roo. In 2012 PRD won in one other state, Puebla, which favored PAN in the 2006 election. Six southern states switched from PRD to PRI: Michoacán, México, Hidalgo, Veracruz, Chiapas and Campeche. Puebla switched from PAN to PRD, while Yucatán went from PAN to PRI.

In the north, the pattern changed completely with the PRI replacing PAN as the highest presidential vote-getter. A total of 11 northern states switched from PAN to PRI: Baja California, Sonora, Chihuahua, Coahuila, Sinaloa, Durango, Aguascalientes, San Luis Potosí, Jalisco, Colima and Querétaro. In 10 of these states PAN came second while PRD took second place in Baja California. In 2012 PAN got most votes in only three states–Nuevo León, Tamaulipas and Guanajuato–compared to 16 in 2006.

PRD appears to have lost much of its relatively weak following in northern Mexico. The three northern states PRD won in 2006 all switched to PRI: Baja California Sur, Nayarit and Zacatecas. In 2012, PRD could only manage second place finishes in three states: Baja California, Nayarit and Zacatecas.

While the north-south pattern is still somewhat apparent, the main pattern of the 2012 presidential election is a strong victory for PRI candidate Enrique Pena Nieto. PRI was victorious in 22 of 32 states and came in second in the other ten.

However, PRI fell just short of controlling Mexico’s Congress so it will need support from some other parties to pass needed legislation and reforms. Together with minority coalition partner PVEM (Mexico’s Green Party), PRI won 240 of the 500 seats in the Chamber of Deputies and 62 of the 128 seats in the Senate. On the other hand, PRI has recently indicated support for many reforms similar to those previously proposed by PAN. This implies that needed reforms may have a decent chance of passing.

Further reading, with state by state analysis:

Geographical diversity in Mexico’s presidential elections [Terra Ignota blog]

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The confirmed results of Mexico’s 2012 presidential elections

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Jul 062012

Mexico’s Federal Electoral Institute, has now confirmed the results of the presidential vote, held on 1 July 201.

PRI candidate Enrique Peña Nieto is the president-elect of Mexico and will take office on 1 December this year.

The confirmed figures for the presidential vote are as follows:

Enrique Peña Nieto (PRI) 38.21%
Andrés Manuel López Obrador (PRD) 31.59%
Josefina Vázquez Mota (PAN) 25.41%
Gabriel Quadri de la Torre (New Alliance Party) 2.29%

The vote turnout was around 63%. We will analyze the map for voting patterns for president, by state, in a future post.

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Mexico’s North–South political divide

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Jun 222010

The Mexican 2006 Presidential election was very close. Felipe Calderon of the center-right PAN party garnered 35.89% of the vote to barely edge out Lopez Obrador of the leftist PRD party, who got 35.33%. Roberto Madrazo of the left-center PRI party was a distant third with 22.23% of the vote.

What is amazing is that while the margin of overall victory was very small, only 0.56%, the votes for the two leading candidates were extremely lopsided within Mexico’s 32 states. In 17 of the 32 states, the winner got over twice as many votes as the other. In only three states was the spread less than 10%. Thus, the colors on the election map below are very solid. Interestingly, the PRI party which had an iron grip on Mexican politics for seven decades up until 2000 did not win in a single state.

It is also very interesting that voting behavior exhibited a strong north-south pattern. In the 2006 Presidential election, 14 of 17 northern states voted for Calderon of PAN (blue on the map), while 13 of 15 southern states voted for Obrador of PRD (yellow on the map).

It is not surprising that the more conservative, pro Catholic PAN party appealed to the wealthier, more urban northern voters and staunch Catholic voters in western Mexico. On the other hand, the populist PRD candidate was more appealing to the poorer, more rural southern voters.

2006 Election results

Mexico City is the main exception, while it is the most prosperous place in the country it is also the most progressive and left-leaning. It recently approved same-sex marriages as well as legalizing marijuana and abortions.

The other exceptions to the north – south divide raise some interesting questions. Why did so few voters in the northern state Nayarit vote for PAN (18.9%) compared to PRD (41.8%) and PRI (33.7%)? Similarly, why did Baja California Sur favor PRD (43.1%) so convincingly over PAN (34.4%)? Interestingly, Yucatan in the PRD dominated southeast voted overwhelming for PAN (46.2%) compared to PRD (15.9%) and PRI (32.9%). It was closer in the southern state of Puebla where PAN (26.8%) edged out PRD (23.1%).

To explain these few anomalies to the north–south pattern will require a closer look at the political dynamics of these states and the election returns at the municipality level. It will be interesting to see if this strong north–south divide persists in the 2012 Presidential election.