May 122016
 

The 2016 hurricane season in Mexico for Pacific coast storms starts on 15 May and lasts until 30 November. For Atlantic storms, the hurricane season extends from 1 June to 30 November, though most hurricane activity is concentrated in the months from July to September. Hurricanes are also known as typhoons or tropical cyclones.

The table shows the World Meteorological Organization’s official list of 2016 tropical storm and hurricane names. Note that male and female names alternate. Names are often reused in future years, with the exception of the names of any particularly violent storms, which are officially “retired” from the list for a long time.

2016 Hurricane Names for the Atlantic, Gulf of Mexico and Caribbean
AlexGastonLisaRichard
BonnieHermineMatthewShary
ColinIanNicoleTobias
DanielleJuliaOttoVirginia
EarlKarlPaulaWalter
Fiona

2016 Hurricane Names for the Eastern Pacific
AgathaGeorgetteMadelineTina
BlasHowardNewtonVirgil
CeliaIvetteOrleneWinifred
DarbyJavierPaineXavier
EstelleKayRoslynYolanda
FrankLesterSeymourZeke

saffir-simpson-scale

In their early season forecast for this year, Philip Klotzbach and William Gray, researchers at Colorado State University,  expect hurricane activity in the Atlantic to be near-normal (ie close to the 30-year average). They predict that in the 2016 season 13 named storms will form in the Atlantic: 5 tropical storms, 6 moderate hurricanes (1 or 2 on the Saffir-Simpson scale), and 2 severe hurricanes (3, 4 or 5 on the Saffir-Simpson scale). These forecasts will be updated on 2 June and 31 July.

Last year’s Atlantic hurricane season was slightly below average in activity with 11 named storms: 5 tropical storms, 4 moderate hurricanes and 2 severe hurricanes. On the other hand, the 2015 Pacific hurricane season was the second most active on record, with 26 named storms, including 11 severe hurricanes.

In 2016, for the Pacific coast, Mexico’s National Meteorological Service (Servicio Metrológico Nacional, SMN) is expecting 17 named storms: 8 tropical storms, 5 moderate hurricanes (1 or 2 on the Saffir-Simpson scale), and 4 severe hurricanes (3, 4 or 5 on the Saffir-Simpson scale).

For the Atlantic coast, SMN) is expecting 13 named storms: 7 tropical storms, 4 moderate hurricanes and 2 severe hurricanes. On both coasts, these predictions indicate a slight increase in storm activity compared to long-term averages. The SNM publishes regular updates on hurricane activity (in Spanish) on its webpage and via its Twitter account: @huracanconagua.

Hurricanes and other climatological phenomena are analyzed in chapters 4 and 7 of Geo-Mexico: the geography and dynamics of modern Mexico. Buy your copy today, so you have a handy reference guide available whenever you need it.

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Dec 072015
 

The 2015 hurricane season in Mexico for Pacific coast storms started on 15 May and ended on 30 November. For Atlantic storms, the hurricane season extended from 1 June to 30 November. Hurricanes are also known as typhoons or tropical cyclones.

saffir-simpson-scale

This year, predictions for hurricane activity in the Atlantic were fairly close to reality, but the Pacific Coast forecast fell well short of predicting the number and severity of hurricane activity.

Atlantic and Caribbean hurricanes

The early season (May) prediction for 2015 for hurricane activity in the Atlantic was that it would be below the 1981-2012 average, with 7 named storms forming in the Atlantic: 4 tropical storms, 2 moderate hurricanes (1 or 2 on the Saffir-Simpson scale), and 1 severe hurricane (3, 4 or 5 on the Saffir-Simpson scale).

In reality, the 2015 Atlantic season did turn out to be slightly less active than the long-term average, but still saw the Caribbean and Gulf coasts affected by 11 named storms: 7 tropical storms, 2 moderate hurricanes and 2 severe hurricanes.

Eastern Pacific hurricanes

For the Pacific coast, Mexico’s National Meteorological Service (Servicio Meteorológico Nacional, SMN) was anticipating 19 named storms in 2015: 8 tropical storms, 7 moderate hurricanes, and 4 severe hurricanes. The 2015 season actually turned out to be the second most active Pacific hurricane season ever, with a total of 26 named storms: 10 tropical storms, 5 moderate hurricanes, and 11 severe hurricanes.

The number of hurricanes (16) in the eastern Pacific tied the all-time record, and the number of severe hurricanes (11) broke all previous records. The activity included Hurricane Patricia, the most powerful hurricane ever. Fortunately for most of Mexico, this storm lost power very rapidly once it came onshore.

An evaluation of Mexico’s early warning system for hurricanes (tropical cyclones).

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Aug 312015
 

This interesting graph comes from “El sistema de alerta temprana ante ciclones tropicales desde una perspectiva de riesgo” (“The early warning system for tropical cyclones from a risk perspective”) by Dr. Víctor Orlando Magaña Rueda and his fellow researchers Adalberto Tejeda Martínez and Gustavo Vázquez Cruz, published in: H2O Gestión del agua #1 (Sacmex, 2014).

It shows the economic losses (line graph) and loss of lives (bar graph) resulting from hydro-meteorological events between 1980 and 2013. Some major storm events are named on the graph. The two background colors divide the period into before and after the introduction, in 2000, of Mexico’s early warning system (Sistema de Alerta Temprana ante Ciclones Tropicales, Siat-CT).

Graph from

Graph from Magaña et al (2014)

Overall, the trends are for some reduction over time in loss of life, but a rapid escalation since 2004 in the economic costs associated with storms and other extreme weather events. This echoes the changes seen in impacts around the world for most hazard types in recent decades.

Given that lives are still being lost, however, the researchers suggest that it is time to re-evaluate Mexico’s early warning system for tropical cyclones. Storms such as Wilma and Stan in 2005, Alex in 2010 or Manuel and Ingrid in 2013, they say, show that the system has not been entirely successful in its principal objective of avoiding loss of life.

The increase in economic costs of hazard events is sometimes attributed to insurance payments but in Mexico’s case, and taking the example of Hurricanes Ingrid and Manuel, only about 20% of total losses were covered by insurance, according to the Mexican Insurers Association (Asociación Mexicana de Instituciones de Seguros). Mexico’s federal Finance Secretariat now assumes that hazard impacts will amount to 1% of GDP a year, a figure that reduces the nation’s economic growth rate by about 0.1% a year.

The authors argue that, in addition to an improved early warning system, other changes are needed in order to reduce vulnerability. Specifically, the system should be modified to:

  • target the most vulnerable sectors of the population so that alerts reach them in ample time
  • incorporate periodic reviews, and allow for modifications to be implemented
  • be fully integrated into all levels of government (national, state and local) and the programs of all government agencies

In addition, they suggest that the reliance on the early warning system on the Saffir-Simpson scale, first developed in the 1970s, as a measure of likely damage, should be reconsidered, given that some recent storms (e.g. Stan in 2005, and Manuel in 2013) have led to far greater damage than would have been expected from their position on that scale. The researchers point out that the current model does not do well in predicting local variations in impacts.

As a result, they propose that identifying categories of risk is at least as important as categories of storm intensity. For example, they suggest that the risks associated with both the intensity and accumulation of precipitation should be taken into account, combined with soil conditions and the water levels of streams and reservoirs. Studies of the spatial distribution of impacts after storms could help identify risk factors and suggest ways to improve future warnings.

Even with an efficient early warning system, other actions are still needed. Buildings could be subject to more stringent construction regulations, especially in those coastal areas that are most at risk, while better programs of beach restoration, environmental planning and hazard event response are also needed.

There is no such thing as a perfect prediction and early warning system, but hopefully Mexico will lead the way in Latin America in reducing human fatalities from hazard events.

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Case study of Hurricane Alex (30 June–1 July 2010)

Hurricane forecast and names for 2015

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Apr 202015
 

The 2015 hurricane season in Mexico for Pacific coast storms starts on 15 May and lasts until 30 November. For Atlantic storms, the hurricane season extends from 1 June to 30 November, though most hurricane activity is concentrated in the months from July to September. Hurricanes are also known as typhoons or tropical cyclones.

The table shows the World Meteorological Organization’s official list of 2015 tropical storm and hurricane names. Note that male and female names alternate. Names are often reused in future years, with the exception of the names of any particularly violent storms, which are officially “retired” from the list for a long time.

2015 Hurricane Names for the Atlantic, Gulf of Mexico and Caribbean
AnaGraceLarryRose
BillHenriMindySam
ClaudetteIdaNicholasTeresa
DannyJoaquinOdetteVictor
ErikaKatePeterWanda
Fred

2015 Hurricane Names for the Eastern Pacific
AndresGuillermoMartyTerry
BlancaHildaNoraVivian
CarlosIgnacioOlafWaldo
DoloresJimenaPatriciaXina
EnriqueKevinRickYork
FeliciaLindaSandraZelda

In their early season forecast for this year, Philip Klotzbach and William Gray, researchers at Colorado State University,  expect hurricane activity in the Atlantic to be below the 1981-2012 average. They predict that in the 2015 season 7 named storms will form in the Atlantic: 4 tropical storms, 2 moderate hurricanes (1 or 2 on the Saffir-Simpson scale), and 1 severe hurricanes (3, 4 or 5 on the Saffir-Simpson scale). These forecasts will be updated on 2 June and 31 July.

saffir-simpson-scaleAs expected, Pacific Ocean hurricanes were more common than usual in 2014, because it was an El Niño year. In 2014, there were 22 named storms (the highest total for 22 years), including a record-typing 16 hurricanes, of which 9 were major hurricanes. Hurricane activity in 2015 is also expected to be higher than the long-term average.

In 2015, for the Pacific coast, Mexico’s National Meteorological Service (Servicio Metrológico Nacional, SMN) is expecting 19 named storms: 8 tropical storms, 7 moderate hurricanes (1 or 2 on the Saffir-Simpson scale), and 4 severe hurricanes (3, 4 or 5 on the Saffir-Simpson scale). The SNM publishes regular updates on hurricane activity (in Spanish) on its webpage and via its Twitter account: @huracanconagua.

How accurate was the 2014 forecast?

The early season (May) prediction for 2014 (last year) was for 9 named storms in the Atlantic: 6 tropical storms, 2 moderate hurricanes and 1 severe hurricanes. This prediction proved to be the fairly accurate. In reality, the 2014 Atlantic season had 8 named storms: 2 tropical storms, 4 moderate hurricanes and 2 severe hurricanes

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Hurricane names and forecast for 2014

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Apr 172014
 

The 2014 hurricane season in Mexico for Pacific coast storms starts on 15 May and lasts until 30 November. For Atlantic storms, the hurricane season extends from 1 June to 30 November, though most hurricane activity is concentrated in the months from July to September. Hurricanes are also known as typhoons or tropical cyclones.

In 2013 only two hurricanes (Manuel and Ingrid) hit Mexico, but they hit simultaneously in September, leading to more than 100 storm-related deaths and millions of dollars worth of property damage in several states, especially Guerrero.

The table shows the World Meteorological Organization’s official list of 2014 hurricane names. Note that male and female names alternate. Names are often reused in future years, with the exception of the names of any particularly violent storms, which are officially “retired” from the list for a long time.

2014 Hurricane Names for the Atlantic, Gulf of Mexico and Caribbean
ArthurGonzaloLauraRene
BerthaHannaMarcoSally
CristobalIsaiasNanaTeddy
DollyJosephineOmarVicky
EduourdKylePauletteWilfred
Fay

2014 Hurricane Names for the Eastern Pacific
AmandaGenevieveMarinaTrudy
BorisHernanNorbertVance
CristinaIselleOdileWinnie
DouglasJulioPoloXavier
ElidaKarinaRachelYolanda
FaustoLowellSimonZeke

For the Atlantic coast, Mexico’s National Meteorological Service (Servicio Metrológico Nacional, SMN) is expecting 10 named storms: 3 tropical storms, 5 moderate hurricanes (1 or 2 on the Saffir-Simpson scale), and 2 severe hurricanes (3, 4 or 5 on the Saffir-Simpson scale).

In their early season forecast for this year, Philip Klotzbach and William Gray, researchers at Colorado State University,  expect hurricane activity in the Atlantic to be significantly below the 1981-2012 average. They write that, “The tropical Atlantic has… cooled over the past several months, and the chances of a moderate to strong El Niño event this summer and fall appear to be quite high…. Historical data indicate fewer storms form in these conditions.” They predict that in the 2014 season 9 named storms will form in the Atlantic: 6 tropical storms, 2 moderate hurricanes (1 or 2 on the Saffir-Simpson scale), and 1 severe hurricanes (3, 4 or 5 on the Saffir-Simpson scale). These forecasts will be updated on 2 June and 31 July.

saffir-simpson-scalePacific Ocean hurricanes tend to be more common in El Niño years, so this year may be more active than usual. For the Pacific coast, Mexico’s National Meteorological Service (Servicio Metrológico Nacional, SMN) is expecting 15 named storms: 5 tropical storms, 7 moderate hurricanes (1 or 2 on the Saffir-Simpson scale), and 3 severe hurricanes (3, 4 or 5 on the Saffir-Simpson scale). The SNM publishes regular updates on hurricane activity (in Spanish) on its webpage and via its Twitter account: @huracanconagua.

How accurate was the 2013 forecast?

The early season (May) prediction for 2013 (last year) was for 18 named storms in the Atlantic: 9 tropical storms, 5 moderate hurricanes and 4 severe hurricanes. This prediction proved to be the least accurate forecast in recent years. In reality, the 2013 Atlantic season had 14 named storms: 1 tropical depression, 11 tropical storms, 2 moderate hurricanes and 0 severe hurricanes. Klotzbach and Gray have since looked at the possible reasons for the poor forecast and concluded that, “It appears that the primary reason was the most significant spring weakening observed since 1950 of the Atlantic thermohaline circulation.” A summary of their findings is available here.

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National Hurricane Agency and National Atlas of Risks

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Jan 232014
 

Speaking at an event to mark the 25th anniversary of the establishment of the National Water Commission (Conagua), President Enrique Peña Nieto announced that the government has allocated 170 million dollars towards modernizing the National Meteorological Service (Servicio Meteorológico Nacional, SMN).

The modernization will include establishing a National Hurricane Agency to coordinate hazard prediction, prevention and mitigation actions with state and municipal authorities to reduce the impacts of natural climatic hazard events.

2013 Atlantic Hurricane Season

Ironically, the 2013 season (shown) was the first Atlantic hurricane season since 1994 to end with no major hurricanes.

In related news, the government has also announced that progress is being made in compiling a National Atlas of Risks. The Atlas is an interactive GIS database containing details of settlements, soils, rivers, dams, highways, rail lines, river basins, oil fields, and many other factors related to the assessment of vulnerability and risk. Due to be completed by 2016, it will help all three levels of government (municipal, state, federal) decide how best to allocate hazard mitigation resources and improve the accuracy of risk assessments utilized in future planning decisions.

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Mexico battered by massive storms from both east and west (September 2013)

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Oct 192013
 

For the first time since 1958 Mexico was bashed virtually simultaneously by two very destructive storms: Ingrid in the east and Manuel in the west. Before discussing their destructive impact, we will describe the tracks of the two storms (photos below) and chart their chronology.

Track of Hurricane Ingrid

Track of Hurricane Ingrid

On September 10, weak weather disturbances were observed in the Caribbean east of the Yucatan Peninsula and in the Pacific south of Chiapas. The disturbance in the Caribbean gained some strength before hitting land which weakened it. It survived its crossing of the peninsula and re-emerged in warm waters of the southern Gulf of Mexico where it quickly gained strength. By the afternoon of September 12th it was upgraded to an official tropical depression.

Track of Hurricane Manuel

Track of Hurricane Manuel

Meanwhile the disturbance in Pacific moved slowly westward and by the morning of 13th was upgraded to a tropical depression. At about noon of the 13th both storms were upgraded to become named tropical storms (Ingrid and Manuel respectively) meaning they had winds of over 40 mph. In other words, the birth of “Ingrid” and “Manuel” were almost simultaneous (light green spots on the tracking maps). After earlier moving westward, both storms started to move north and slightly east picking up moisture, strength and wind speed over the warm ocean water.

Ingrid continued to move north gaining strength and by the next afternoon, the 14th, it was upgraded to a Category I hurricane with winds of 75mph. It started to move west and winds increased to 85mph on the morning of the 15th. Meanwhile Manuel also started to move west again skirting the coast of Guerrero and Michoacán. Early on the 15th Manuel’s winds reached 70mph. Though wind speeds did not quite reach hurricane level at that time and the eye of Manuel never made landfall, it brought enormous amounts of rain to coastal communities. For example, on September 14th Chilpancingo, Guerrero’s capital, got 393mm (15.5”) of rain while Acapulco got 140mm (5.5”) (Wunderground.com). This, added to considerable rain on preceding and following days, led to horrific flooding.

Satellite image of Hurricane Ingrid and Hurricane Manuel, September 2013

Satellite image of Hurricane Ingrid and Hurricane Manuel, 15 September 2013

On September 15th Hurricane Ingrid with winds of 75-85mph drifted toward Taumalipas in northeast Mexico. Meanwhile. Tropical Storm Manuel with winds about 60mph made landfall near Manzanillo, Colima. Once over land, the storm quickly lost power; by that evening winds were down to 35mph and Manuel was downgraded to tropical depression, but heavy rainfall continued. The next morning on the 16th Manuel’s winds were down to 30mph and it was further downgraded to a “remnant” of a tropical storm. But later that day, the remnant of Manuel move back to the Pacific Ocean near Puerto Vallarta and began to regain its strength.

That same morning September 16th Ingrid, which had weaken to a tropical storm with winds of 65mph made landfall just east of Ciudad Victoria, Tamaulipas. By the next morning, the 17th, Ingrid’s winds were down to 25mph and it was downgraded to a “remnant” though heavy rainfall continued.

Later on the 17th, Manuel regained its status as a tropical depression (winds of 35mph). The next morning, the 18th, it regained tropical storm status and by that afternoon it became Hurricane Manuel with winds of 75mph. Early on the 19th it made landfall west of Culiacan, Sinaloa. Moving east over land Manuel quickly lost power and was down to a remnant by the morning of the 20th. However, the remnant of Manuel continued far north and east joining the remnant of Ingrid and bringing torrential rains and flooding to central Texas, including Austin.

While storms are classified by their wind speeds from tropical depressions to tropical storms and then to hurricanes with intensities one up to five; this classification does not capture the extent of damage that can be caused. The amount of rain combined with the terrain can be far more damaging than the wind speeds. Furthermore the storm surge associated with a storm’s low pressure and high tides can be far more devastating than the winds as we saw with Hurricane Rita in New Orleans and Hurricane Sandy in New York.

In the case of Manuel, the amount of rainfall was far more destructive than the winds. The rains of Manuel as a “tropical storm” off the coast of Guerrero did far more damage than Hurricane Manuel did later in the State of Sinaloa or Ingrid did in eastern Mexico. Manual caused a total of about 84 reported deaths. At least 72 people were reported dead in Guerrero and another 68 were reported missing in the town of La Pintada that was partially buried under a massive mudslide. In Acapulco about 18 died. Floods closed the exit highways and the airport, temporarily stranding 40,000 tourists. These photos from the Guardian and USAToday show the extent of flooding in Guerrero, especially around Acapulco.

In contrast fewer than a dozen people reportedly died in Sinaloa which was later directly hit by Hurricane Manual. While Ingrid had considerably stronger winds than Manuel, its death toll of only about 23 was spread across several states from Puebla just east of Mexico City up to Tamualipas on the Texas border. More than half the total, 12 died in Altotonga, Veracruz, when a mudslide smashed into a bus. Of course, deaths are not the only, nor the best, measure of a storm’s destructive impact. Other commonly used measures are the financial cost of the damage and the number of people who evacuated or become homeless. No matter what measure is used, hurricanes are one of the most destructive natural hazards.

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Hurricane names and forecast for 2013

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May 112013
 

The 2013 hurricane season in Mexico is underway. The “official” hurricane season is from 15 May to 30 November each year for Pacific coast storms, and from 1 June to 30 November for Atlantic storms, though most hurricane activity is concentrated in the months from July to September. Hurricanes are also known as typhoons or tropical cyclones.

The table shows the World Meteorological Organization’s official list of 2012 hurricane names. Note that male and female names alternate. Names are often reused in future years, with the exception of the names of any particularly violent storms, which are officially “retired” from the list for a long time.

2013 Hurricane Names for the Atlantic, Gulf of Mexico and Caribbean
AndreaGabrielleLorenzoRebekah
BarryHumbertoMelissaSebastien
ChantalIngridNestorTanya
DorianJerryOlgaVan
ErinKarenPabloWendy
Ferdinand

2013 Hurricane Names for the Eastern Pacific
AlvinGilManuelTico
BarbaraHenrietteNardaVelma
CosmeIvoOctaveWallis
DalilaJuliettePriscillaXina
ErickKikoRaymondYork
FlossieLorenaSoniaZelda

In their early season forecast for this year, Philip Klotzbach and William Gray, researchers at Colorado State University,  expect hurricane activity in the Atlantic to be significantly higher than the 1981-2010 average. They write that, “The tropical Atlantic has anomalously warmed over the past several months, and it appears that the chances of an El Niño event this summer and fall are unlikely”. (A strong el Niño is likely to minimize Atlantic hurricane activity). They predict that in the 2013 season 18 named storms will form in the Atlantic: 9 tropical storms, 5 moderate hurricanes (1 or 2 on the Saffir-Simpson scale), and 4 severe hurricanes (3, 4 or 5 on the Saffir-Simpson scale). These forecasts will be updated on 3 June and 2 August.

saffir-simpson-scale

For the Pacific coast, Mexico’s National Meteorological Service (Servicio Metrológico Nacional, SMN) is expecting 14 named storms: 6 tropical storms, 4 moderate hurricanes (1 or 2 on the Saffir-Simpson scale), and 4 severe hurricanes (3, 4 or 5 on the Saffir-Simpson scale). The SNM publishes regular updates on hurricane activity (in Spanish) on its webpage and via its Twitter account: @huracanconagua.

How accurate was the forecast in 2012?

The late season (3 August) prediction for 2012 (last year) was for 14 named storms in the Atlantic: 8 tropical storms, 4 moderate hurricanes and 2 severe hurricanes. In reality, the 2012 Atlantic season had 19 named storms: 9 tropical storms, 8 moderate hurricanes and 2 severe hurricanes.

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Hurricane names and forecast for 2012

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May 172012
 

The 2012 hurricane season in Mexico is underway. The “official” hurricane season is from 15 May to 30 November each year for Pacific coast storms, and from 1 June to 30 November for Atlantic storms, though most hurricane activity is concentrated in the months from July to September. Hurricanes are also known as typhoons or tropical cyclones.

The table shows the World Meteorological Organization’s official list of 2012 hurricane names. Note that male and female names alternate. Names are often reused in future years, with the exception of the names of any particularly violent storms, which are officially “retired” from the list for a long time.

2012 Hurricane Names for the Atlantic, Gulf of Mexico and Caribbean
AlbertoGordonLeslieRafael
BerylHeleneMichaelSandy
ChrisIsaacNadineTony
DebbyJoyceOscarValerie
ErnestoKirkPattyWilliam
Florence

2012 Hurricane Names for the Eastern Pacific
AlettaGilmaMiriamTara
BudHectorNormanVicente
CarlottaIleanaOliviaWilla
DanielJohnPaulXavier
EmiliaKristyRosaYolanda
FabioLaneSergioZeke

This year, Philip Klotzbach and William Gray, researchers at Colorado State University,expect hurricane activity in the Atlantic to be lower than average, about half as active as last year, when 20 tropical storms, seven hurricanes and four major hurricanes were recorded. They predict that in the 2012 season 10 named storms will form in the Atlantic: 6 tropical storms, 2 moderate hurricanes (1 or 2 on the Saffir-Simpson scale), and 2 severe hurricanes (3, 4 or 5 on the Saffir-Simpson scale).

Want to know more about the way in which the prediction is made and what it is based on?

For the Pacific coast, Mexico’s National Meteorological Service (Servicio Metrológico Nacional, SMN) is expecting 13 storms: 7  tropical storms, 4 moderate hurricanes (1 or 2 on the Saffir-Simpson scale), and 2 severe hurricanes (3, 4 or 5 on the Saffir-Simpson scale). The SNM publishes regular updates on hurricane activity (in Spanish) on its webpage and via its Twitter account: @huracanconagua.

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How accurate was last year’s hurricane prediction?

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Jan 162012
 

The annual prediction of the hurricane activity on the Atlantic/Gulf/Caribbean side of Mexico for 2011 by Dr Philip Klotzbach and Dr. William Gray (Colorado State University) was for a slightly more active season than in 2010. For 2011, they introduced some modifications to their predictive model, which now takes into account:

  • Predictor 1. Gradient of sea surface temperatures (SST) in February-March between the Eastern Subtropical region of the Atlantic and the South Atlantic. This has a positive connection with hurricane activity.
  • Predictor 2. Air pressure at sea level in March in the Subtropical Atlantic. This has a negative connection with hurricane activity.
  • Predictor 3. Air pressure at sea level in February in the South-Eastern Pacific. This new variable has a positive connection with hurricane activity.
  • Predictor 4. Forecast made in March from Central Europe for sea surface temperatures in September for the El Niño-3 region. This new predictor has a negative connection with hurricane activity.
Tracks of Atlantic Hurricanes, 2011

Tracks of Atlantic Hurricanes, 2011

In April, the prediction for the 2011 Atlantic/Caribbean hurricane season was for 16 tropical cyclones, including 7 tropical storms, 4 moderate hurricanes (Category 1 or 2 on the Saffir-Simpson scale) and 5 strong hurricanes (C 3, 4 or 5).

This prediction proved to be quite good. In the event, there were actually 19 tropical cyclones, including 12 tropical storms, 4 moderate hurricanes (C1, C2) and 3 strong hurricanes (one C3 and two C4).

Tracks of Pacific Hurricanes, 2011

Tracks of Pacific Hurricanes, 2011

On the Pacific coast, the 2011 season saw 11 tropical cyclones including 1 tropical storm, 4 moderate hurricanes and 6 strong hurricanes. Fortunately, almost all these cyclones remained out at sea and only Hurricane Jova, which reached category 3 in early October, caused any significant damage on land (see Hurricane Jova smashes into Barra de Navidad and Melaque on Mexico’s Pacific Coast).

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