May 122016
 

The 2016 hurricane season in Mexico for Pacific coast storms starts on 15 May and lasts until 30 November. For Atlantic storms, the hurricane season extends from 1 June to 30 November, though most hurricane activity is concentrated in the months from July to September. Hurricanes are also known as typhoons or tropical cyclones.

The table shows the World Meteorological Organization’s official list of 2016 tropical storm and hurricane names. Note that male and female names alternate. Names are often reused in future years, with the exception of the names of any particularly violent storms, which are officially “retired” from the list for a long time.

2016 Hurricane Names for the Atlantic, Gulf of Mexico and Caribbean
AlexGastonLisaRichard
BonnieHermineMatthewShary
ColinIanNicoleTobias
DanielleJuliaOttoVirginia
EarlKarlPaulaWalter
Fiona

2016 Hurricane Names for the Eastern Pacific
AgathaGeorgetteMadelineTina
BlasHowardNewtonVirgil
CeliaIvetteOrleneWinifred
DarbyJavierPaineXavier
EstelleKayRoslynYolanda
FrankLesterSeymourZeke

saffir-simpson-scale

In their early season forecast for this year, Philip Klotzbach and William Gray, researchers at Colorado State University,  expect hurricane activity in the Atlantic to be near-normal (ie close to the 30-year average). They predict that in the 2016 season 13 named storms will form in the Atlantic: 5 tropical storms, 6 moderate hurricanes (1 or 2 on the Saffir-Simpson scale), and 2 severe hurricanes (3, 4 or 5 on the Saffir-Simpson scale). These forecasts will be updated on 2 June and 31 July.

Last year’s Atlantic hurricane season was slightly below average in activity with 11 named storms: 5 tropical storms, 4 moderate hurricanes and 2 severe hurricanes. On the other hand, the 2015 Pacific hurricane season was the second most active on record, with 26 named storms, including 11 severe hurricanes.

In 2016, for the Pacific coast, Mexico’s National Meteorological Service (Servicio Metrológico Nacional, SMN) is expecting 17 named storms: 8 tropical storms, 5 moderate hurricanes (1 or 2 on the Saffir-Simpson scale), and 4 severe hurricanes (3, 4 or 5 on the Saffir-Simpson scale).

For the Atlantic coast, SMN) is expecting 13 named storms: 7 tropical storms, 4 moderate hurricanes and 2 severe hurricanes. On both coasts, these predictions indicate a slight increase in storm activity compared to long-term averages. The SNM publishes regular updates on hurricane activity (in Spanish) on its webpage and via its Twitter account: @huracanconagua.

Hurricanes and other climatological phenomena are analyzed in chapters 4 and 7 of Geo-Mexico: the geography and dynamics of modern Mexico. Buy your copy today, so you have a handy reference guide available whenever you need it.

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Dec 072015
 

The 2015 hurricane season in Mexico for Pacific coast storms started on 15 May and ended on 30 November. For Atlantic storms, the hurricane season extended from 1 June to 30 November. Hurricanes are also known as typhoons or tropical cyclones.

saffir-simpson-scale

This year, predictions for hurricane activity in the Atlantic were fairly close to reality, but the Pacific Coast forecast fell well short of predicting the number and severity of hurricane activity.

Atlantic and Caribbean hurricanes

The early season (May) prediction for 2015 for hurricane activity in the Atlantic was that it would be below the 1981-2012 average, with 7 named storms forming in the Atlantic: 4 tropical storms, 2 moderate hurricanes (1 or 2 on the Saffir-Simpson scale), and 1 severe hurricane (3, 4 or 5 on the Saffir-Simpson scale).

In reality, the 2015 Atlantic season did turn out to be slightly less active than the long-term average, but still saw the Caribbean and Gulf coasts affected by 11 named storms: 7 tropical storms, 2 moderate hurricanes and 2 severe hurricanes.

Eastern Pacific hurricanes

For the Pacific coast, Mexico’s National Meteorological Service (Servicio Meteorológico Nacional, SMN) was anticipating 19 named storms in 2015: 8 tropical storms, 7 moderate hurricanes, and 4 severe hurricanes. The 2015 season actually turned out to be the second most active Pacific hurricane season ever, with a total of 26 named storms: 10 tropical storms, 5 moderate hurricanes, and 11 severe hurricanes.

The number of hurricanes (16) in the eastern Pacific tied the all-time record, and the number of severe hurricanes (11) broke all previous records. The activity included Hurricane Patricia, the most powerful hurricane ever. Fortunately for most of Mexico, this storm lost power very rapidly once it came onshore.

An evaluation of Mexico’s early warning system for hurricanes (tropical cyclones).

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Aug 312015
 

This interesting graph comes from “El sistema de alerta temprana ante ciclones tropicales desde una perspectiva de riesgo” (“The early warning system for tropical cyclones from a risk perspective”) by Dr. Víctor Orlando Magaña Rueda and his fellow researchers Adalberto Tejeda Martínez and Gustavo Vázquez Cruz, published in: H2O Gestión del agua #1 (Sacmex, 2014).

It shows the economic losses (line graph) and loss of lives (bar graph) resulting from hydro-meteorological events between 1980 and 2013. Some major storm events are named on the graph. The two background colors divide the period into before and after the introduction, in 2000, of Mexico’s early warning system (Sistema de Alerta Temprana ante Ciclones Tropicales, Siat-CT).

Graph from

Graph from Magaña et al (2014)

Overall, the trends are for some reduction over time in loss of life, but a rapid escalation since 2004 in the economic costs associated with storms and other extreme weather events. This echoes the changes seen in impacts around the world for most hazard types in recent decades.

Given that lives are still being lost, however, the researchers suggest that it is time to re-evaluate Mexico’s early warning system for tropical cyclones. Storms such as Wilma and Stan in 2005, Alex in 2010 or Manuel and Ingrid in 2013, they say, show that the system has not been entirely successful in its principal objective of avoiding loss of life.

The increase in economic costs of hazard events is sometimes attributed to insurance payments but in Mexico’s case, and taking the example of Hurricanes Ingrid and Manuel, only about 20% of total losses were covered by insurance, according to the Mexican Insurers Association (Asociación Mexicana de Instituciones de Seguros). Mexico’s federal Finance Secretariat now assumes that hazard impacts will amount to 1% of GDP a year, a figure that reduces the nation’s economic growth rate by about 0.1% a year.

The authors argue that, in addition to an improved early warning system, other changes are needed in order to reduce vulnerability. Specifically, the system should be modified to:

  • target the most vulnerable sectors of the population so that alerts reach them in ample time
  • incorporate periodic reviews, and allow for modifications to be implemented
  • be fully integrated into all levels of government (national, state and local) and the programs of all government agencies

In addition, they suggest that the reliance on the early warning system on the Saffir-Simpson scale, first developed in the 1970s, as a measure of likely damage, should be reconsidered, given that some recent storms (e.g. Stan in 2005, and Manuel in 2013) have led to far greater damage than would have been expected from their position on that scale. The researchers point out that the current model does not do well in predicting local variations in impacts.

As a result, they propose that identifying categories of risk is at least as important as categories of storm intensity. For example, they suggest that the risks associated with both the intensity and accumulation of precipitation should be taken into account, combined with soil conditions and the water levels of streams and reservoirs. Studies of the spatial distribution of impacts after storms could help identify risk factors and suggest ways to improve future warnings.

Even with an efficient early warning system, other actions are still needed. Buildings could be subject to more stringent construction regulations, especially in those coastal areas that are most at risk, while better programs of beach restoration, environmental planning and hazard event response are also needed.

There is no such thing as a perfect prediction and early warning system, but hopefully Mexico will lead the way in Latin America in reducing human fatalities from hazard events.

Related posts:

Case study of Hurricane Alex (30 June–1 July 2010)

Hurricane forecast and names for 2015

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Apr 202015
 

The 2015 hurricane season in Mexico for Pacific coast storms starts on 15 May and lasts until 30 November. For Atlantic storms, the hurricane season extends from 1 June to 30 November, though most hurricane activity is concentrated in the months from July to September. Hurricanes are also known as typhoons or tropical cyclones.

The table shows the World Meteorological Organization’s official list of 2015 tropical storm and hurricane names. Note that male and female names alternate. Names are often reused in future years, with the exception of the names of any particularly violent storms, which are officially “retired” from the list for a long time.

2015 Hurricane Names for the Atlantic, Gulf of Mexico and Caribbean
AnaGraceLarryRose
BillHenriMindySam
ClaudetteIdaNicholasTeresa
DannyJoaquinOdetteVictor
ErikaKatePeterWanda
Fred

2015 Hurricane Names for the Eastern Pacific
AndresGuillermoMartyTerry
BlancaHildaNoraVivian
CarlosIgnacioOlafWaldo
DoloresJimenaPatriciaXina
EnriqueKevinRickYork
FeliciaLindaSandraZelda

In their early season forecast for this year, Philip Klotzbach and William Gray, researchers at Colorado State University,  expect hurricane activity in the Atlantic to be below the 1981-2012 average. They predict that in the 2015 season 7 named storms will form in the Atlantic: 4 tropical storms, 2 moderate hurricanes (1 or 2 on the Saffir-Simpson scale), and 1 severe hurricanes (3, 4 or 5 on the Saffir-Simpson scale). These forecasts will be updated on 2 June and 31 July.

saffir-simpson-scaleAs expected, Pacific Ocean hurricanes were more common than usual in 2014, because it was an El Niño year. In 2014, there were 22 named storms (the highest total for 22 years), including a record-typing 16 hurricanes, of which 9 were major hurricanes. Hurricane activity in 2015 is also expected to be higher than the long-term average.

In 2015, for the Pacific coast, Mexico’s National Meteorological Service (Servicio Metrológico Nacional, SMN) is expecting 19 named storms: 8 tropical storms, 7 moderate hurricanes (1 or 2 on the Saffir-Simpson scale), and 4 severe hurricanes (3, 4 or 5 on the Saffir-Simpson scale). The SNM publishes regular updates on hurricane activity (in Spanish) on its webpage and via its Twitter account: @huracanconagua.

How accurate was the 2014 forecast?

The early season (May) prediction for 2014 (last year) was for 9 named storms in the Atlantic: 6 tropical storms, 2 moderate hurricanes and 1 severe hurricanes. This prediction proved to be the fairly accurate. In reality, the 2014 Atlantic season had 8 named storms: 2 tropical storms, 4 moderate hurricanes and 2 severe hurricanes

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Hurricane names and forecast for 2014

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Apr 172014
 

The 2014 hurricane season in Mexico for Pacific coast storms starts on 15 May and lasts until 30 November. For Atlantic storms, the hurricane season extends from 1 June to 30 November, though most hurricane activity is concentrated in the months from July to September. Hurricanes are also known as typhoons or tropical cyclones.

In 2013 only two hurricanes (Manuel and Ingrid) hit Mexico, but they hit simultaneously in September, leading to more than 100 storm-related deaths and millions of dollars worth of property damage in several states, especially Guerrero.

The table shows the World Meteorological Organization’s official list of 2014 hurricane names. Note that male and female names alternate. Names are often reused in future years, with the exception of the names of any particularly violent storms, which are officially “retired” from the list for a long time.

2014 Hurricane Names for the Atlantic, Gulf of Mexico and Caribbean
ArthurGonzaloLauraRene
BerthaHannaMarcoSally
CristobalIsaiasNanaTeddy
DollyJosephineOmarVicky
EduourdKylePauletteWilfred
Fay

2014 Hurricane Names for the Eastern Pacific
AmandaGenevieveMarinaTrudy
BorisHernanNorbertVance
CristinaIselleOdileWinnie
DouglasJulioPoloXavier
ElidaKarinaRachelYolanda
FaustoLowellSimonZeke

For the Atlantic coast, Mexico’s National Meteorological Service (Servicio Metrológico Nacional, SMN) is expecting 10 named storms: 3 tropical storms, 5 moderate hurricanes (1 or 2 on the Saffir-Simpson scale), and 2 severe hurricanes (3, 4 or 5 on the Saffir-Simpson scale).

In their early season forecast for this year, Philip Klotzbach and William Gray, researchers at Colorado State University,  expect hurricane activity in the Atlantic to be significantly below the 1981-2012 average. They write that, “The tropical Atlantic has… cooled over the past several months, and the chances of a moderate to strong El Niño event this summer and fall appear to be quite high…. Historical data indicate fewer storms form in these conditions.” They predict that in the 2014 season 9 named storms will form in the Atlantic: 6 tropical storms, 2 moderate hurricanes (1 or 2 on the Saffir-Simpson scale), and 1 severe hurricanes (3, 4 or 5 on the Saffir-Simpson scale). These forecasts will be updated on 2 June and 31 July.

saffir-simpson-scalePacific Ocean hurricanes tend to be more common in El Niño years, so this year may be more active than usual. For the Pacific coast, Mexico’s National Meteorological Service (Servicio Metrológico Nacional, SMN) is expecting 15 named storms: 5 tropical storms, 7 moderate hurricanes (1 or 2 on the Saffir-Simpson scale), and 3 severe hurricanes (3, 4 or 5 on the Saffir-Simpson scale). The SNM publishes regular updates on hurricane activity (in Spanish) on its webpage and via its Twitter account: @huracanconagua.

How accurate was the 2013 forecast?

The early season (May) prediction for 2013 (last year) was for 18 named storms in the Atlantic: 9 tropical storms, 5 moderate hurricanes and 4 severe hurricanes. This prediction proved to be the least accurate forecast in recent years. In reality, the 2013 Atlantic season had 14 named storms: 1 tropical depression, 11 tropical storms, 2 moderate hurricanes and 0 severe hurricanes. Klotzbach and Gray have since looked at the possible reasons for the poor forecast and concluded that, “It appears that the primary reason was the most significant spring weakening observed since 1950 of the Atlantic thermohaline circulation.” A summary of their findings is available here.

Related posts:

National Hurricane Agency and National Atlas of Risks

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Jan 232014
 

Speaking at an event to mark the 25th anniversary of the establishment of the National Water Commission (Conagua), President Enrique Peña Nieto announced that the government has allocated 170 million dollars towards modernizing the National Meteorological Service (Servicio Meteorológico Nacional, SMN).

The modernization will include establishing a National Hurricane Agency to coordinate hazard prediction, prevention and mitigation actions with state and municipal authorities to reduce the impacts of natural climatic hazard events.

2013 Atlantic Hurricane Season

Ironically, the 2013 season (shown) was the first Atlantic hurricane season since 1994 to end with no major hurricanes.

In related news, the government has also announced that progress is being made in compiling a National Atlas of Risks. The Atlas is an interactive GIS database containing details of settlements, soils, rivers, dams, highways, rail lines, river basins, oil fields, and many other factors related to the assessment of vulnerability and risk. Due to be completed by 2016, it will help all three levels of government (municipal, state, federal) decide how best to allocate hazard mitigation resources and improve the accuracy of risk assessments utilized in future planning decisions.

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Mexico battered by massive storms from both east and west (September 2013)

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Oct 192013
 

For the first time since 1958 Mexico was bashed virtually simultaneously by two very destructive storms: Ingrid in the east and Manuel in the west. Before discussing their destructive impact, we will describe the tracks of the two storms (photos below) and chart their chronology.

Track of Hurricane Ingrid

Track of Hurricane Ingrid

On September 10, weak weather disturbances were observed in the Caribbean east of the Yucatan Peninsula and in the Pacific south of Chiapas. The disturbance in the Caribbean gained some strength before hitting land which weakened it. It survived its crossing of the peninsula and re-emerged in warm waters of the southern Gulf of Mexico where it quickly gained strength. By the afternoon of September 12th it was upgraded to an official tropical depression.

Track of Hurricane Manuel

Track of Hurricane Manuel

Meanwhile the disturbance in Pacific moved slowly westward and by the morning of 13th was upgraded to a tropical depression. At about noon of the 13th both storms were upgraded to become named tropical storms (Ingrid and Manuel respectively) meaning they had winds of over 40 mph. In other words, the birth of “Ingrid” and “Manuel” were almost simultaneous (light green spots on the tracking maps). After earlier moving westward, both storms started to move north and slightly east picking up moisture, strength and wind speed over the warm ocean water.

Ingrid continued to move north gaining strength and by the next afternoon, the 14th, it was upgraded to a Category I hurricane with winds of 75mph. It started to move west and winds increased to 85mph on the morning of the 15th. Meanwhile Manuel also started to move west again skirting the coast of Guerrero and Michoacán. Early on the 15th Manuel’s winds reached 70mph. Though wind speeds did not quite reach hurricane level at that time and the eye of Manuel never made landfall, it brought enormous amounts of rain to coastal communities. For example, on September 14th Chilpancingo, Guerrero’s capital, got 393mm (15.5”) of rain while Acapulco got 140mm (5.5”) (Wunderground.com). This, added to considerable rain on preceding and following days, led to horrific flooding.

Satellite image of Hurricane Ingrid and Hurricane Manuel, September 2013

Satellite image of Hurricane Ingrid and Hurricane Manuel, 15 September 2013

On September 15th Hurricane Ingrid with winds of 75-85mph drifted toward Taumalipas in northeast Mexico. Meanwhile. Tropical Storm Manuel with winds about 60mph made landfall near Manzanillo, Colima. Once over land, the storm quickly lost power; by that evening winds were down to 35mph and Manuel was downgraded to tropical depression, but heavy rainfall continued. The next morning on the 16th Manuel’s winds were down to 30mph and it was further downgraded to a “remnant” of a tropical storm. But later that day, the remnant of Manuel move back to the Pacific Ocean near Puerto Vallarta and began to regain its strength.

That same morning September 16th Ingrid, which had weaken to a tropical storm with winds of 65mph made landfall just east of Ciudad Victoria, Tamaulipas. By the next morning, the 17th, Ingrid’s winds were down to 25mph and it was downgraded to a “remnant” though heavy rainfall continued.

Later on the 17th, Manuel regained its status as a tropical depression (winds of 35mph). The next morning, the 18th, it regained tropical storm status and by that afternoon it became Hurricane Manuel with winds of 75mph. Early on the 19th it made landfall west of Culiacan, Sinaloa. Moving east over land Manuel quickly lost power and was down to a remnant by the morning of the 20th. However, the remnant of Manuel continued far north and east joining the remnant of Ingrid and bringing torrential rains and flooding to central Texas, including Austin.

While storms are classified by their wind speeds from tropical depressions to tropical storms and then to hurricanes with intensities one up to five; this classification does not capture the extent of damage that can be caused. The amount of rain combined with the terrain can be far more damaging than the wind speeds. Furthermore the storm surge associated with a storm’s low pressure and high tides can be far more devastating than the winds as we saw with Hurricane Rita in New Orleans and Hurricane Sandy in New York.

In the case of Manuel, the amount of rainfall was far more destructive than the winds. The rains of Manuel as a “tropical storm” off the coast of Guerrero did far more damage than Hurricane Manuel did later in the State of Sinaloa or Ingrid did in eastern Mexico. Manual caused a total of about 84 reported deaths. At least 72 people were reported dead in Guerrero and another 68 were reported missing in the town of La Pintada that was partially buried under a massive mudslide. In Acapulco about 18 died. Floods closed the exit highways and the airport, temporarily stranding 40,000 tourists. These photos from the Guardian and USAToday show the extent of flooding in Guerrero, especially around Acapulco.

In contrast fewer than a dozen people reportedly died in Sinaloa which was later directly hit by Hurricane Manual. While Ingrid had considerably stronger winds than Manuel, its death toll of only about 23 was spread across several states from Puebla just east of Mexico City up to Tamualipas on the Texas border. More than half the total, 12 died in Altotonga, Veracruz, when a mudslide smashed into a bus. Of course, deaths are not the only, nor the best, measure of a storm’s destructive impact. Other commonly used measures are the financial cost of the damage and the number of people who evacuated or become homeless. No matter what measure is used, hurricanes are one of the most destructive natural hazards.

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Hurricane names and forecast for 2013

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May 112013
 

The 2013 hurricane season in Mexico is underway. The “official” hurricane season is from 15 May to 30 November each year for Pacific coast storms, and from 1 June to 30 November for Atlantic storms, though most hurricane activity is concentrated in the months from July to September. Hurricanes are also known as typhoons or tropical cyclones.

The table shows the World Meteorological Organization’s official list of 2012 hurricane names. Note that male and female names alternate. Names are often reused in future years, with the exception of the names of any particularly violent storms, which are officially “retired” from the list for a long time.

2013 Hurricane Names for the Atlantic, Gulf of Mexico and Caribbean
AndreaGabrielleLorenzoRebekah
BarryHumbertoMelissaSebastien
ChantalIngridNestorTanya
DorianJerryOlgaVan
ErinKarenPabloWendy
Ferdinand

2013 Hurricane Names for the Eastern Pacific
AlvinGilManuelTico
BarbaraHenrietteNardaVelma
CosmeIvoOctaveWallis
DalilaJuliettePriscillaXina
ErickKikoRaymondYork
FlossieLorenaSoniaZelda

In their early season forecast for this year, Philip Klotzbach and William Gray, researchers at Colorado State University,  expect hurricane activity in the Atlantic to be significantly higher than the 1981-2010 average. They write that, “The tropical Atlantic has anomalously warmed over the past several months, and it appears that the chances of an El Niño event this summer and fall are unlikely”. (A strong el Niño is likely to minimize Atlantic hurricane activity). They predict that in the 2013 season 18 named storms will form in the Atlantic: 9 tropical storms, 5 moderate hurricanes (1 or 2 on the Saffir-Simpson scale), and 4 severe hurricanes (3, 4 or 5 on the Saffir-Simpson scale). These forecasts will be updated on 3 June and 2 August.

saffir-simpson-scale

For the Pacific coast, Mexico’s National Meteorological Service (Servicio Metrológico Nacional, SMN) is expecting 14 named storms: 6 tropical storms, 4 moderate hurricanes (1 or 2 on the Saffir-Simpson scale), and 4 severe hurricanes (3, 4 or 5 on the Saffir-Simpson scale). The SNM publishes regular updates on hurricane activity (in Spanish) on its webpage and via its Twitter account: @huracanconagua.

How accurate was the forecast in 2012?

The late season (3 August) prediction for 2012 (last year) was for 14 named storms in the Atlantic: 8 tropical storms, 4 moderate hurricanes and 2 severe hurricanes. In reality, the 2012 Atlantic season had 19 named storms: 9 tropical storms, 8 moderate hurricanes and 2 severe hurricanes.

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Hurricane names and forecast for 2012

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May 172012
 

The 2012 hurricane season in Mexico is underway. The “official” hurricane season is from 15 May to 30 November each year for Pacific coast storms, and from 1 June to 30 November for Atlantic storms, though most hurricane activity is concentrated in the months from July to September. Hurricanes are also known as typhoons or tropical cyclones.

The table shows the World Meteorological Organization’s official list of 2012 hurricane names. Note that male and female names alternate. Names are often reused in future years, with the exception of the names of any particularly violent storms, which are officially “retired” from the list for a long time.

2012 Hurricane Names for the Atlantic, Gulf of Mexico and Caribbean
AlbertoGordonLeslieRafael
BerylHeleneMichaelSandy
ChrisIsaacNadineTony
DebbyJoyceOscarValerie
ErnestoKirkPattyWilliam
Florence

2012 Hurricane Names for the Eastern Pacific
AlettaGilmaMiriamTara
BudHectorNormanVicente
CarlottaIleanaOliviaWilla
DanielJohnPaulXavier
EmiliaKristyRosaYolanda
FabioLaneSergioZeke

This year, Philip Klotzbach and William Gray, researchers at Colorado State University,expect hurricane activity in the Atlantic to be lower than average, about half as active as last year, when 20 tropical storms, seven hurricanes and four major hurricanes were recorded. They predict that in the 2012 season 10 named storms will form in the Atlantic: 6 tropical storms, 2 moderate hurricanes (1 or 2 on the Saffir-Simpson scale), and 2 severe hurricanes (3, 4 or 5 on the Saffir-Simpson scale).

Want to know more about the way in which the prediction is made and what it is based on?

For the Pacific coast, Mexico’s National Meteorological Service (Servicio Metrológico Nacional, SMN) is expecting 13 storms: 7  tropical storms, 4 moderate hurricanes (1 or 2 on the Saffir-Simpson scale), and 2 severe hurricanes (3, 4 or 5 on the Saffir-Simpson scale). The SNM publishes regular updates on hurricane activity (in Spanish) on its webpage and via its Twitter account: @huracanconagua.

Related posts:

How accurate was last year’s hurricane prediction?

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Jan 162012
 

The annual prediction of the hurricane activity on the Atlantic/Gulf/Caribbean side of Mexico for 2011 by Dr Philip Klotzbach and Dr. William Gray (Colorado State University) was for a slightly more active season than in 2010. For 2011, they introduced some modifications to their predictive model, which now takes into account:

  • Predictor 1. Gradient of sea surface temperatures (SST) in February-March between the Eastern Subtropical region of the Atlantic and the South Atlantic. This has a positive connection with hurricane activity.
  • Predictor 2. Air pressure at sea level in March in the Subtropical Atlantic. This has a negative connection with hurricane activity.
  • Predictor 3. Air pressure at sea level in February in the South-Eastern Pacific. This new variable has a positive connection with hurricane activity.
  • Predictor 4. Forecast made in March from Central Europe for sea surface temperatures in September for the El Niño-3 region. This new predictor has a negative connection with hurricane activity.
Tracks of Atlantic Hurricanes, 2011

Tracks of Atlantic Hurricanes, 2011

In April, the prediction for the 2011 Atlantic/Caribbean hurricane season was for 16 tropical cyclones, including 7 tropical storms, 4 moderate hurricanes (Category 1 or 2 on the Saffir-Simpson scale) and 5 strong hurricanes (C 3, 4 or 5).

This prediction proved to be quite good. In the event, there were actually 19 tropical cyclones, including 12 tropical storms, 4 moderate hurricanes (C1, C2) and 3 strong hurricanes (one C3 and two C4).

Tracks of Pacific Hurricanes, 2011

Tracks of Pacific Hurricanes, 2011

On the Pacific coast, the 2011 season saw 11 tropical cyclones including 1 tropical storm, 4 moderate hurricanes and 6 strong hurricanes. Fortunately, almost all these cyclones remained out at sea and only Hurricane Jova, which reached category 3 in early October, caused any significant damage on land (see Hurricane Jova smashes into Barra de Navidad and Melaque on Mexico’s Pacific Coast).

Want to read more?

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Hurricane Jova smashes into Barra de Navidad and Melaque on Mexico’s Pacific Coast

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Oct 142011
 

The twin coastal towns of Melaque and Barra de Navidad in the state of Jalisco felt the full force of Hurricane Jova earlier this week. Barra de Navidad has great historical importance as one of the shipbuilding ports where the Spanish built the ships which traversed the Pacific Ocean to the islands of the Philippines.

Full details are only beginning to emerge of the damage done, but the following links show the storm’s path, and some of its immediate impacts:

Fortunately, Hurricane Jova had lost some of its strength by the time it slammed into the coast as a Category 2 hurricane on 12 October. It had previously packed winds of up to 160 km/hr. Even so, it brought torrential rain to coastal areas between the major resorts of Puerto Vallarta and Manzanillo, and heavy rain inland as far as Guadalajara (about 400 km from the coast). In Guadalajara, the flag-raising ceremony to mark the start of the 2011 Pan-American Games was postponed by a day because of continuous rainfall.

In Puerto Vallarta, where several Pan-American Games events are scheduled to be held, including sailing, triathlon, beach volleyball, and open water swimming, authorities secured boats and reinforced the beach volleyball courts with sandbags.

The catastrophe-modelling firm AIR Worldwide says Hurricane Jova will have caused less than $52m of damage as it hit a sparsely populated stretch of Mexico’s Pacific coast downgraded as a Category 2 hurricane.

Many smaller settlements, including Cihuatlán, La Huerta, Villa Purificacion, and Cuautitlán de García Barragán were temporarily cut off as floodwaters made the main coastal highway impassible. Streets in many towns were inundated.

Details of the storm’s track and intensity will (in due course) be available at the National Hurricane Center’s archive for 2011 Eastern Pacific Hurricanes.

Previous hurricane-related posts include:

Hurricanes and other climatological phenomena are analyzed in chapters 4 and 7 of Geo-Mexico: the geography and dynamics of modern Mexico. Buy your copy today, so you have a handy reference guide available whenever you need it.

Atlantic and eastern Pacific hurricane names for 2011

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Apr 132011
 

Hurricanes are also known as typhoons or tropical cyclones. The table shows the World Meteorological Organization’s official list of 2011 hurricane names. Note that male and female names alternate. Names are often reused in future years, with the exception of the names of any particularly violent storms, which are officially “retired” from the list for a long time.

Atlantic, Gulf of Mexico and CaribbeanEastern Pacific
ArleneAdrian
BretBeatrix
CindyCalvin
DonDora
EmilyEugene
FranklinFernanda
GertGreg
HarveyHilary
IreneIrwin
JoseJova
KatiaKenneth
LeeLidia
MariaMax
NateNorma
OpheliaOtis
PhilippePilar
RinaRamon
SeanSelma
TammyTodd
VanceVeronica
WhitneyWiley
Xina
York
Zelda

In Mexico, the “official” hurricane season is from May 15 to November 30 each year for Pacific coast storms, and from June 1 to Novemebr 30 for Atlantic storms, though most hurricane activity is concentrated in the months from July to September.

This year, Philip Klotzbach and William Gray, researchers at Colorado State University, predict that 16 named storms will form in the Atlantic: 7 tropical storms,4 moderate hurricanes (1 or 2 on the Saffir-Simpson scale), and 5 severe hurricanes (3, 4 or 5 on the Saffir-Simpson scale).

For the Pacific coast, Mexico’s National Meteorological Service (Servicio Metrológico Nacional, SMN) is expecting 17 storms: 7  tropical storms, 6 moderate hurricanes (1 or 2 on the Saffir-Simpson scale), and 4 severe hurricanes (3, 4 or 5 on the Saffir-Simpson scale). The SNM publishes regular updates on hurricane activity (in Spanish) on its webpage and via its Twitter account: @huracanconagua.

Previous posts related to hurricane prediction:

Hurricanes and other climatic hazards are analyzed in detail in chapter 4 of  Geo-Mexico: the geography and dynamics of modern Mexico.

Mexican geophysicists develop new model for hurricane forecasting

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Jan 112011
 

The new methods, using physics rather than mathematics as the basis, can be used to forecast the timing of Category 5 hurricanes, the most severe level on the Saffir-Simpson scale.

Category 5 hurricanes have sustained wind speeds of up to 250 km/hr, with catastrophic impacts on homes, lives and infrastructure. The most recent Category 5 hurricanes to strike Mexico are Dean (2007), Wilma (2005), Mitch (1998), Gilbert (1988) and Beulah (1967).

Scientists at the Geophysics Institute of the National University (UNAM) in Mexico City have developed a physics-based model, relying on three-dimensional imaging, which can be used to predict severe (Category 5) hurricanes. They have also pin-pointed precisely where in the deep waters of the Atlantic Ocean severe hurricanes are most likely to originate. The scientists conclude that severe hurricanes do not occur randomly in time, but tend to occur at roughly cyclical intervals, about every ten years.

Diagram showing features of the existing GFDL Hurricane Prediction System

Diagram showing features of the existing GFDL Hurricane Prediction System

They hope that the new techniques will improve the forecasting associated with these severe weather hazards, and offer more lead-in time for the updating and implementation of evacuation plans and other mitigation measures.

Lead investigator Víctor Manuel Velasco Herrera says that, according to the model, the next period when Category 5 hurricanes will occur will begin in 2013 and end in 2017, “with a margin of error of one year.”

Watch this space for updates in due course!

Previous posts related to hurricane prediction:

Hurricanes and other climatological phenomena are analyzed in chapters 4 and 7 of Geo-Mexico: the geography and dynamics of modern Mexico. Buy your copy today, so you have a handy reference guide available whenever you need it.

How good were the 2010 hurricane predictions?

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Dec 042010
 

In an earlier post – How many hurricanes are likely in the 2010 Atlantic hurricane season? – we reported on the predictions for this year’s Atlantic/Caribbean hurricane season

How close to reality did those predictions turn out to be?

The predictions were for 8 tropical storms, 5 moderate hurricanes (1 or 2 on the Saffir-Simpson scale), and 5 severe hurricanes (3, 4 or 5 on the Saffir-Simpson scale). At the end of the season (30 November 2010), there had been 7 tropical storms, 7 moderate hurricanes and 5 major hurricanes. In total, these storms caused 259 deaths directly, and a further 23 indirectly, with total property damage estimated at US$11.4 billion. (Note that not all of these hurricanes affected Mexico).

Atlantic Hurricane tracks, 2010

Atlantic hurricane tracks, 2010. Created by Cyclonebiskit using Wikipedia: WikiProject Tropical cyclones/Tracks. Author: Cyclonebiskit and Syntheticalconnections

So, all in all, the predictions made before the hurricane season started were pretty close to the mark, and this hurricane season was indeed one of the most active on record.

Previous hurricane-related posts include:

Hurricanes and other climatological phenomena are analyzed in chapters 4 and 7 of Geo-Mexico: the geography and dynamics of modern Mexico. Buy your copy today, so you have a handy reference guide available whenever you need it.

Hurricane Richard approaches the Yucatán Peninsula

 Mexico's geography in the Press  Comments Off on Hurricane Richard approaches the Yucatán Peninsula
Oct 242010
 

As the hurricane season draws to a close, Hurricane Richard is approaching the coasts of Belize and Mexico’s Yucatán Peninsula. For its latest position and predicted path, see Mexico’s National Meteorological Service website. [After the event, hurricane information is stored in the same site’s Historical Hurricane Archive.]

hurricane-richard-2010

Hurricane Richard is predicted to lose strength (and be downgraded to a Tropical Storm) as it crosses the Yucatán Peninsula. Even so, it will bring more heavy rains to eastern Mexico, an area still struggling to cope with the aftermath of torrential downpours earlier in the summer.

Previous hurricane-related posts:

Hurricanes and other climatological phenomena are analyzed in chapters 4 and 7 of Geo-Mexico: the geography and dynamics of modern Mexico. Buy your copy today, so you have a handy reference guide available whenever you need it.

Update on highway conditions in north-eastern Mexico following Hurricane Alex

 Mexico's geography in the Press  Comments Off on Update on highway conditions in north-eastern Mexico following Hurricane Alex
Jul 142010
 

Source: SCT press release (14 July 2010) with additional details based on press reports

Tamaulipas

Most highways (including Ciudad Victoria-Matamoros, Tampico-Ciudad Victoria, Ciudad Victoria-Monterrey and Ciudad Victoria-Soto la Marina) have been cleared and reopened.

Exceptions:
1. Reynosa-Matamoros: the free road is open, but the toll highway is still closed. This highway will be inspected and repaired once flood water recedes, but repair work is estimated to require 5 or 6 days.

2. Further west, the Ciudad Mier-Nuevo Laredo road (Hwy 2) is still closed.

Nuevo León

The Saltillo-Monterrey toll road has been reopened.

The Monterrey-Nuevo Laredo toll road has now opened, but only for commercial truck traffic and passenger buses; the free road will remain closed for several days more.

Bridge repairs close to Ciudad Anahuac, one of the worst affected areas, have been completed, restoring road communication from Ciudad Anahuac to Nuevo Laredo.

Monterrey–Reynosa toll road (Hwy 40D)- open.

Linares-San Roberto (Hwy 31) road – closed (Alternative route is via Monterrey)

Ciudad Victoria-Monterrey highway (Hwy 85). Repairs continuing on the by-pass to Montemorelos (traffic being redirected through the town); expected to remain closed for several more days.

Coahuila

Puerto-México-Carbonera Highway – open, but limited to one-lane in places; expected to be fully operational by 26 July.

Morelos-Ciudad Acuña (Hwy 29): still closed pending bridge repairs.

Frausto-Paredón-Monterrey (this road links Hwy 57 to the western outskirts of Monterrey)- to be partially opened shortly, with a dirt road detour to avoid a damaged bridge.

Drivers are urged to use extreme caution on highways in all these areas and to drive within the posted speed limits.

It is clear that highway crews have done an amazing job of re-establishing most of the area’s critical highway links even though the flood waters have not yet receded. It will still take many many days before the backlog of 20,000 large trucks currently stranded in Nuevo Laredo can all reach their destinations further south.

150 inter-city buses are also stranded in Nuevo Laredo.

It will also take several days before the normal supply routes to stock Nuevo Laredo’s stores, supermarkets and markets with fresh produce will be back to normal.

Previous hurricane-related posts:

Hurricane Alex, 30 June – 1 July 2010

Hurricanes and other climatological phenomena are analyzed in chapters 4 and 7 of Geo-Mexico: the geography and dynamics of modern Mexico. Buy your copy today, so you have a handy reference guide available whenever you need it.

In which months are hurricanes most likely to strike Mexico?

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Jul 142010
 

The following verse provides a way to remember how likely hurricanes are in different months of the year. It applies specifically to Atlantic (Gulf of Mexico) and Caribbean hurricanes.

June, too soon
July, stand by
August, come it must
September, remember
October, all over.

This verse matches the historical records of Atlantic and Caribbean hurricanes fairly closely. Even so, to keep everyone on their toes, hurricanes sometimes, very occasionally, develop in other months of the year.

Previous hurricane-related posts:

Hurricane Alex, 30 June – 1 July 2010

Hurricanes and other climatological phenomena are analyzed in chapters 4 and 7 of Geo-Mexico: the geography and dynamics of modern Mexico. Buy your copy today, so you have a handy reference guide available whenever you need it.

Jul 102010
 

NEW (Sunday 11 July): At present the discharge of the Río Bravo/Grande is decreasing, but a secondary peak discharge is expected to sweep downstream from late Monday through Tuesday, depending on the precise location.

The following summary of recent developments related to Hurricane Alex has been compiled from a variety of news reports.

Loss of life
In Coahuila, memorial services have been held for Horacio del Bosque Dávila, the state’s Director of Public Works, who died alongside seven colleagues while assessing the flood damage from the air, when their light plane crashed.

Four more deaths from drowning have been reported, with the discovery of four bodies on the bank of the Río Bravo near Ciudad Acuña.

State of emergency
A state of emergency has been declared in many more municipalities, bringing the total number of affected municipalities to 43 in the state of Nuevo León and 25 in Coahuila.

The municipalities recently added to the list are:

  • Nuevo León: Agualeguas, Galeana, Doctor González, García, Marín, General Zuazua, Mina, Hidalgo, Iturbide, Los Herreras, Parás and Pesquería.
  • Coahuila: Los Acuña, Allende, Cuatrociénegas, Guerrero, Hidalgo, Jiménez, Juárez, Morelos, Múzquiz, Nava, Piedras Negras, Progreso, Sabinas, San Juan de Sabinas, Villa Unión and Zaragoza.

Highways and transport
Both main highways between Monterrey and Nuevo Laredo are currently closed, and expected to remain so for another 3-4 days.

  • Federal highway 85D is flooded between km 143 and 146, near Sabinas Hidalgo, due to the Río Salado overflowing its banks.
  • Highway 85 (the non-toll highway) is closed at km 155, near Ciénega de Flores, because of a badly damaged bridge.

Cross border rail services were also suspended for a time.

International Bridge #1 was closed for more than 24 hours as the Río Bravo peaked, but has now reopened. Not surprisingly, truck traffic across the international bridges into Nuevo Laredo has been severely affected, especially since they currently have no way to proceed further south.

The vehicle inspection offices on the Mexican side of the bridge were flooded.

Several roads in and around the city of Monterrey have been closed due to flooding and resulting landslides.

In Tamaulipas, 41,700 people have been forced out of their homes, in 19 municipalities. In Hidalgo municipality, work has begun on erecting an emergency bridge to reconnect 14 small settlements to the rest of the state following the destruction of the old bridge. The settlements include El Chorito, one of the most revered pilgrimage centers in north-eastern Mexico.

Flow levels on the Río Bravo/Grande
The flow levels on the Río Bravo/Grande are unprecedented in recent times. All floodgates at the Venustiano Carranza dam have had to be opened, and are expected to remain so for 4 or 5 more days.

The Río Bravo has not experienced flows like this since the construction in 1968 of Presa La Amistad. The river peaked at a height of 13 meters, more than 12 meters above its normal level for this time of year. Its peak discharge was 7,500 cubic meters per second, also a post-dam record.

Agriculture
A total of up to 300,000 hectares of agricultural land have been affected by flooding. Tamaulipas has applied for emergency farming aid for an area of 153,500 hectares in 32 municipalities.

The most valuable crops to be affected are sorghum, corn, cotton, chile, tomato, alfalfa and canteloupe. Sorghum production alone is likely to fall by one million tons.

Property damages
The cost of the repairs needed for the badly damaged potable water network in the city of Monterrey (Nuevo León) is estimated at 260 million dollars.

The hurricane has damaged more than 1,000 schools in Nuevo León, out of a total of 3,535. At least 60 schools suffered severe structural damage. The estimated repair costs are about 30 million dollars.

This YouTube video is a collection of photos showing the extraordinary amount of damage done in the city of Monterrey.

Aid
The loss of life and property damages might have been much greater had it not been for efficient emergency services and disaster response. Aid is reaching almost all the victims of the floods, either via the Red Cross or via Mexico’s Armed Services (Army and Navy).

Hundreds of additional firemen, rescue crews and police have been drafted in to help.

A shelter for more than 800 people is operational in the city of Matamoros.

A vaccination campaign is already underway, with measures being taken to prevent an outbreak of dengue fever.

Telmex (Teléfonos de México) and other phone companies are giving residents in areas affected by flooding up to a week of free local and national long distance calls.

Miscellaneous
Two undocumented Central American migrants were rescued from the river after having been swept more than 5 kilometers downstream. They had tried to cross the river using an inner tube. It had taken one of them two months to reach this border crossing from his home in Honduras.

A rescue helicopter plucked 8 people to safety from the steel tower supporting the community water tank in El Camarón, located between Nuevo Laredo and Cd. Anahuac. They had been marooned when the River Salado overflowed. Local officials believe another five people may also have been trapped, but have so far failed to locate them.

Previous posts related to Hurricane Alex:

Mexico’s climatic hazards, including hurricanes, are analyzed in chapter 4 of Geo-Mexico: the geography and dynamics of modern Mexico. Buy your copy today, so you have a handy guide to the “back story” behind Mexico’s current affairs.

More reports of damage from Hurricane Alex, and another storm on the way

 Mexico's geography in the Press, Updates to Geo-Mexico  Comments Off on More reports of damage from Hurricane Alex, and another storm on the way
Jul 082010
 

Update on the aftermath of Hurricane Alex, Thursday 8 July, 2010

The Mexico-USA border area may be in for a very wet week, since Tropical Depression 2 (which would become Hurricane Bonnie if its wind speeds increase) is now approaching the area from the Gulf of Mexico. Weather Underground has more details and maps showing the possible storm paths.

The Río Bravo (Grande) is expected to peak in Laredo at 13 meters (42 feet) at Bridge 1, and possibly even higher at the Columbia bridge. Cross-border travelers in that area are best advised to delay their travel until the river level is well on its way down. Otherwise, anticipate long delays and time-consuming diversions.

State officials in Coahuila now say that at least 80,000  people in that state are homeless, 20,000 homes are uninhabitable, and 40,000 homes are still without drinking water.

The Nuevo León state chapter of the National Chamber of Housing Developers claims that at least 7,000 homes in Nuevo León need major repairs or rebuilding as a result of Hurricane Alex.

This YouTube video of the flood gives a good idea of the power of the water flow in the city of Monterrey (Nuevo León).

Previous posts related to Hurricane Alex:

Mexico’s climatic hazards, including hurricanes, are analyzed in chapter 4 of Geo-Mexico: the geography and dynamics of modern Mexico. Buy your copy today, so you have a handy guide to the “back story” behind Mexico’s current affairs.

Mass evacuations and flood alerts follow Hurricane Alex

 Mexico's geography in the Press, Updates to Geo-Mexico  Comments Off on Mass evacuations and flood alerts follow Hurricane Alex
Jul 072010
 

The final death toll from Hurricane Alex last week stands at 12. It is a tribute to the effective preparations made by residents and authorities in advance of the storm, and to relief efforts, that more people did not lose their lives.

The center of Monterrey, an industrial center which is Mexico’s third largest city, was briefly turned into a raging torrent, with widespread damage to roads and infrastructure. Click here for a photo gallery showing some of the extensive damage caused by Huricane Alex.

Hurricane Alex

Hurricane Alex. Photo: NOAA. Click to enlarge.

In addition to those made homeless as a direct result of the storm, a further 18,000 people have been evacuated from their homes because they are downstream of the Venustiano Carranza dam, located about 70 km (43 miles) away, which is now at bursting point.

The authorities in Ciudad Anahuac (a short distance south-west of Nuevo Laredo) have opened some of the dam’s floodgates to ease the water pressure but the situation is still reported to be critical. The opening of the floodgates released 600 cubic meters of water a second into the Río Salado, a tributary of the Río Bravo/Grande. Meanwhile, residents have been moved to shelters in nearby towns.

Santos Garza Garcia, the town’s mayor, told reporters that “It was preferable to have controlled flooding than having the whole town disappear.”

In a related development, the bi-national International Boundary and Water Commission, which adjudicates Mexico-USA border issues, ordered the release of 1,000 cubic meters a second (35,000 cubic feet per second) of floodwater from the Amistad reservoir into the Río Grande. The Amistad reservoir straddles the border upstream of the cities of Del Río (Texas) and Ciudad Acuña (Coahuila).

The heavy rains had already swollen the Río Bravo/Río Grande (which forms along the Mexico-USA border) to dangerous levels. The level of the river is being continuously monitored. Its level has risen by as much as 6 meters (20 feet) above normal. As a precaution, several border crossings, including the international bridge between Laredo (Texas) and Nuevo Laredo (Tamaulipas) have been closed.

It is the first time since 1995, that an Atlantic hurricane has struck Mexico’s Gulf coast as early as June. Everyone hopes that the main hurricane season, in July-August-September, does not bring further loss of life and property damage.

Additional note added Thursday July 8: The Mexico-USA border area may be in for a very wet week, since Tropical Storm 2 (which would become Hurricane Betty if wind speeds increase) is now approaching. Weather Underground has more details and maps showing the possible storm paths.

Earlier posts:

Mexico’s climatic hazards, including hurricanes, are analyzed in chapter 4 of Geo-Mexico: the geography and dynamics of modern Mexico. Buy your copy today, so you have a handy guide to the “back story” behind Mexico’s current affairs.

Jul 042010
 

Northern states have been hard hit by the severe rainstorms associated with the passage of Hurricane Alex on 1 July 2010.

News reports say that at least six people have been killed, one by a mudslide which engulfed her car. The infrastructure in many parts of northern Mexico has been badly damaged.

Damage from Hurricane Alex

Damage from Hurricane Alex. Flickr Creative Commons, Deus ex Camera, 2 July 2010

In Nuevo León, a state of emergency was declared in 21 municipalities, including the Mexico’s second largest city Monterrey. The municipalities affected are Anáhuac, Apodaca, Cadereyta Jiménez, Cerralvo, China, Ciénega de Flores, Doctor Coss, General Escobedo, General Treviño, Guadalupe, Hualahuises, Linares, Los Aldamas, Los Ramones, Melchor Ocampo, Montemorelos, Monterrey, San Nicolás de los Garza, San Pedro Garza García, Santa Catarina and Santiago.

Declaring a state of emergency allows states to access funds held in Mexico’s Fund for Natural Disasters (Fonden).

The storms washed dozens of vehicles into nearby rivers and damaged bridges and protective barriers. Intercity bus service were suspended in various areas until highways blocked by rocks and mud could be cleared.

Despite record rainfalls of up to 820 mm (a year’s worth of rain in just three days!), the storms left 110,000 people in the state without water, and 140,000 without power. Thousands are homeless and have relocated to emergency shelters. The director of the National Water Commission warned that the El Cuchillo dam had reached 124% of its capacity and ordered excess water to be allowed to flow down local rivers.

Damages were also considerable in two neighboring states, Tamaulipas and Coahuila. In Tamaulipas, a state of emergency was declared in 22 municiaplities (Mainero, Villagrán, Hidalgo, Victoria, San Fernando, Méndez, Burgos, Villas Aldama, González, Matamoros, Reynosa, Valle Hermoso, Río Bravo, Soto la Marina, Jiménez, Abasolo, Jiménez, Casas, Mante, Llera, Padilla and Güémez). Damages in Tamaulipas alone were estimated to exceed 100 million dollars.

In Coahuila, one person is still missing. The storm hit 8 municipalities especially hard: Nadadores, where one person was reported missing, Monclova, Saltillo, Ramos Arizpe, Parras, Sacramento, La Madrid, and the Sierra de Arteaga.

While most damage was concentrated in northern states, several municipalities in southern Mexico, including Guerrero and Oaxaca, also reported damage.

Earlier post about the build-up to Hurricane Alex.

Hurricanes and other climatological phenomena are analyzed in chapters 4 and 7 of Geo-Mexico: the geography and dynamics of modern Mexico. Buy your copy today, so you have a handy reference guide available whenever you need it.

Click here for Deus Ex Camera’s photo collection about Hurricane Alex.

How many hurricanes are likely in the 2010 Atlantic hurricane season?

 Mexico's geography in the Press, Updates to Geo-Mexico  Comments Off on How many hurricanes are likely in the 2010 Atlantic hurricane season?
Jul 012010
 

Philip Klotzbach and William Gray, of Colorado State University, have analyzed the atmospheric and oceanic conditions in the Atlantic immediately prior to the 2010 hurricane season. They conclude that this season’s hurricane activity in the Atlantic is likely to be stronger than has been the norm during the past 50 years. They predict that the Atlantic season will see 18 named storms, of which 8 will be classed as tropical storms, 5 as moderate hurricanes (1 or 2 on the Saffir-Simpson scale), and 5 as severe hurricanes (3, 4 or 5 on the Saffir-Simpson scale).

The popular press regularly warns us that on-going global warming will increase the frequency of hurricanes, and their intensity, allegedly due to warmer sea-surface temperatures in the mid-ocean hurricane-spawning areas. Klotzbach and Gray do not believe this. They studied the paths of all severe hurricanes (category 3, 4 or 5) for the fifty years from 1945-1994, dividing this time frame into two 25-year periods (see image).

Tracks of severe Atlantic hurricanes, 1945-1994

Tracks of severe Atlantic hurricanes, 1945-1994. Source: Klotzbach and Gray, 2010. Link to original article at end of this post. Click image to enlarge.

From 1945-1969 was a period of weak global cooling. There were 80 severe hurricanes in this period, some of them taking very erratic paths, with correspondingly dramatic impacts when they struck areas wholly unprepared.

Between 1970 and 1994, the Earth’s temperatures underwent a modest rise (global warming). However, in stark contrast to popular belief, far fewer severe hurricanes occurred during this period (38 in total), and they tended to follow entirely predictable paths.

Clearly the science behind hurricane formation is more complicated than some journalists would have us believe!

Klotzbach and Gray demonstrate the importance of the Thermohaline Circulation (THC) in the Atlantic. The THC is a large-scale circulation in the Atlantic Ocean that is driven by fluctuations in salinity and temperature. The 1945-1969 period coincided with a strong THC, whereas the 1970-1994 period was a time when the THC was weak.

What has happened since 1994? In the fifteen years from 1995-2009 inclusive, the THC was strong, and there were 56 severe Atlantic hurricanes. By comparison, in the preceding fifteen years from 1980-1994, when the THC was weak, only 22 severe hurricanes formed. So it appears that hurricane frequency is not linked to global warming or carbon dioxide (CO2) levels in the atmosphere, but to cyclical changes in the THC.

How accurate are the predictions for the 2010 hurricane season? Only time will tell…

Click here for Klotzbach and Gray’s original article (pdf).

Hurricane warnings in Mexico are the responsibility of the National Meteorological Service (NMS). The NMS also provides an archive of information about past hurricanes.

Hurricanes and other climatological phenomena are analyzed in chapters 4 and 7 of Geo-Mexico: the geography and dynamics of modern Mexico. Buy your copy today, so you have a handy reference guide available whenever you need it.

Hurricane Alex, the first Atlantic hurricane of the season, is about to strike land

 Mexico's geography in the Press, Updates to Geo-Mexico  Comments Off on Hurricane Alex, the first Atlantic hurricane of the season, is about to strike land
Jun 302010
 

The first Atlantic hurricane of the season, Hurricane Alex, is about to cross the coast of the state of Tamaulipas in north-eastern Mexico. Early on 30 June 2010, Hurricane Alex was 250 km east of La Pesca on the coast of Tamaulipas. Currently classified as a Category 1 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson scale, Alex is moving slowly (11 km/h) in a west-north-westerly direction. It has sustained winds of 130 km/h, with gusts up to 160 km/h.

Before crossing the coast later in the day, it is expected to strengthen to a category 2 storm (with sustained winds of 150 km/h and gusts up to 185 km/h).

For its latest position and predicted path, see Mexico’s National Meteorological Service website.

After the event, hurricane information is stored in the same site’s Historical Hurricane Archive.

Hurricanes and other climatological phenomena are analyzed in chapters 4 and 7 of Geo-Mexico: the geography and dynamics of modern Mexico. Buy your copy today, so you have a handy reference guide available whenever you need it.

Jun 262010
 

Hurricanes are also known as typhoons or tropical cyclones. The table shows the World Meteorological Organization’s official list of 2010 hurricane names.

Atlantic, Gulf of Mexico and CaribbeanEastern Pacific
AlexAgatha
BonnieBlas
ColinCelia
DanielleDarby
EarlEstelle
FionaFrank
GastonGeorgette
HermineHoward
IgorIsis
JuliaJavier
KarlKay
LisaLester
MatthewMadeline
NicoleNewton
OttoOrlene
PaulaPaine
RichardRoslyn
SharySeymour
TomasTina
VirginieVirgil
WalterWinifred
Xavier
Yolanda
Zeke

Hurricane Darby is currently off the Pacific coast. It is the second major hurricane so far this hurricane season, the first being Hurricane Celia. As of June 25, Hurricane Celia is well out to sea, while Hurricane Darby is a Category 3 storm, with maximum sustained winds near 115 mph (185 kph). Hurricane Darby  is located about 265 miles (425 kilometers) southwest of Acapulco, and heading west-northwest (ie out to sea) at about 6 mph (9 kph). Neither hurricane looks likely to affect land areas.

We are still waiting for the first fully-fledged hurricane to develop on the other side of Mexico.

Note that male and female names alternate. Names are often reused in future years, with the exception of the names of any particularly violent storms, which are officially “retired” from the list for a long time.

Hurricanes and other climatic hazards are analyzed in detail in chapter 4 of  Geo-Mexico: the geography and dynamics of modern Mexico.