The changing climate of Mexico’s urban areas

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Dec 312011
 

As large urban areas grow in size, they change their local climate in various ways. The best known effect is that called the urban heat island: the air above cities is significantly warmer than the surrounding air in suburban and rural areas. The transfer of heat energy from people, homes, vehicles and factories warms the air immediately above the city. The irregular built-up surfaces of a city absorb more energy than nearby vegetated areas, also helping to raise the city’s temperature. The difference in temperature is most noticeable just before sunrise.

Wind speeds in cities tend to be lower than in their rural outskirts. Precipitation tends to be slightly higher, as a result of the additional heat energy, which causes mid-afternoon instability, and because city air has higher concentrations of particulates (dust, smog, contaminants) from vehicles and factories.

Urban heat island (°C) in Puebla, Mexico

Urban heat island (°C) in Puebla, Mexico, 2200 h, 11 November 1970 (Source: G.M. Gäb, 1976)

Mexican cities are no exception. The urban heat island differential has risen by an average of 0.44ºC per decade for large cities (population over one million), and by 0.37ºC per decade for mid-sized cities (population between 150,000 and 1,000,000). These rates are clearly greater than the background effect of global warming, variously estimated at between 0.07 and 0.20ºC a decade.

There is no doubt that accelerated urbanization has warmed and is continuing to warm urban air, affecting the comfort levels of millions of people. The cities where urban temperatures have risen most rapidly are Torreón, which warmed at a rate of 1.2ºC per decade from 1952–1998, and Guadalajara, where temperatures rose by 0.74ºC a decade from 1920–1997. [Jauregui, E. 2005. Impact of Increasing Urbanization on the Thermal Climate of Large Mexican Cities]

The case of Mexico City shows an additional complication. At the end of the 19th century, comparing minimum temperatures, Mexico City (population then 400,000) was about 1.5ºC warmer than surrounding areas. This difference had risen dramatically to about 9ºC (16ºF) by the 1980s. Urbanization has certainly played a part, and its effects have perhaps been exacerbated by the city’s unfortunate position in a basin, which traps air, heat and contamination. However, climate modeling suggests that the loss of lakes in the Valley of Mexico, including the draining of most of Lake Texcoco, has played at least as large a part in Mexico City’s increased temperatures as the expansion of its urban area. [Jazcilevich, A. et al. 2000. Simulated Urban Climate Response to Historical Land Use Modification in the Basin of Mexico. Climatic Change 44]

In addition, the incidence of intense rain showers (those where more than 20 mm (0.8 in) falls per hour) in Mexico City has also risen steadily, from four a decade in the 1940s to twenty a decade in 1980s. There is, however, no convincing evidence that wet season rainfall totals have increased, despite the combination of increased temperatures and instability, and the higher number of particulates in the air from dust, vehicle exhausts and factories. Away from the edge of the city, precipitation appears to have declined. [Jauregui, E. 2004. Impact of land-use changes on the climate of the Mexico City Region. Mexico City: Boletín del Instituto de Geografía.]

In summary, the expansion of Mexico City appears to have led to warmer, drier conditions in the Valley of Mexico.

Urban areas also have distinctive effects on hydrology. The roads and buildings of cities form impermeable surfaces which reduce infiltration almost to zero and greatly increase surface runoff. The lag time between a rainstorm and peak discharge in stream channels is much less in urban areas than in their rural surroundings. This makes the likelihood of flooding much greater in urban areas. In most cities, surface runoff is channeled rapidly into gutters and drains (a form of high speed throughflow) in an effort to reduce flood risk.

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Mexican Home Town Associations (HTAs) and their considerable effectiveness

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Dec 292011
 

Home Town Associations (HTAs) are associations created by migrants to promote links between their hometown communities of origin (Mexico) and their communities of residence in the USA. Many HTAs raise money (via dances, raffles, beauty pageants and other events) to fund public works and social projects in Mexico.

Mexico offers important additional funding to multiply the impact of “collective remittances” sent home from HTAs. Every dollar sent home is matched by three dollars, one from each level of Mexico’s political administration: federal, state and municipal. This means that a relatively small input of dollars from an HTA can be the catalyst to fund a school or new road.

From 1993 to 2000, investments financed by the program totaled $16.2 million, for projects ranging from street paving, irrigation and drainage to new or revamped cemeteries, parks, plazas, community centers and athletic facilities. The average cost of these projects is $56,000; almost two-thirds of projects are in communities of fewer than 2000 inhabitants.  [Source: “Migrant’s Capital for Small Scale Infrastructure and Small Enterprise Development in Mexico,” World Bank, January 2002.]

Case study of the 3×1 scheme: Atacheo de Regalado (Michoacán)

Atacheo de Regalado has a population of fewer than 2000 inhabitants, and is only 15 km. northeast of the large commercial city of Zamora, in the state of Michoacán.

Atacheo de Regalado has implemented five productive community projects under the “3 dollars for 1” scheme, based on remittances sent home from migrants in the USA, mainly in Illinois. The projects, involving 336 families, have been organized by the priests of a local church, and include a turkey farm, a goat farm, hydroponics green houses to grow vegetables and flowers for export, a factory for loudspeakers and baffles, and a bull-fighting ring. These five projects represent a total investment of about $1.5 million (dollars). The community exported 220 tons of tomatoes to the USA in 2003.

Two more projects, will need investments of about $2 million to complete, are planned:

  • 1. A rastro (meat factory) to process up to 2000 turkeys a day for sale to supermarket chains.
  • 2. A pasteurization plant for goat milk, to process up to 40,000 liters daily for export to the USA.

[This post is based on the World Bank Working Paper by Raúl Hernández-Coss, entitled “The U.S.–Mexico Remittance Corridor: Lessons on Shifting from Informal to Formal Transfer Systems”.]

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The typical remittance, the last mile, and the effects of remittances on recipient communities

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Dec 262011
 

What are the characteristics of a “typical” remittance? The average remittance amount has remained fairly stable in the past decade. Migrants sending remittances do so about once every month, and send between $280 and $370 each time. Remittance amounts tend to decrease over time; migrants who have lived in the USA for a long time send fewer dollars back home than those in their first year or two. Some migrants continue to send funds back home even after living for 20 years or more in the USA. [This post is based on the World Bank Working Paper by Raúl Hernández-Coss, entitled The U.S.–Mexico Remittance Corridor: Lessons on Shifting from Informal to Formal Transfer Systems.]

The recipients

Remittance payments do not only go to Mexico’s poorest families. Recent surveys show that the there is very little difference between the monthly income of recipients of remittances in Mexico and the national average monthly income. The educational level of recipients is also close to that of the overall population.

The last mile: how do recipients receive remittances?

Depending on how they are sent, remittances can be collected by recipients in Mexico in several different places. These include banks, some department stores, post offices, casas populares (akin to credit unions), microfinance institutions, neighborhood stores and currency exchange outlets.

Effects of Remittances on Recipient Communities

These effects can be examined at a variety of scales.

At the household level, remittances are believed to have an overall positive effect on the recipient economy. Some studies have reported that remittances from the USA account for 20% of the capital invested in micro-enterprises in Mexico. The spending of remittances has a multiplier effect in local communities. On the other hand, remittances may also have some negative effects on households. Some families may become overly dependent on regular remittance payments and lose the incentive to work or improve labor skills.

At the community level, remittances from the USA are often used for community projects in the migrants’ “home” towns and villages in Mexico. This implies a much greater degree of organization (than for household-level impacts) and carries socio-political implications. There are dozens of “Home Town Associations” in the USA, each linking migrants to their home community. In many cases, these give migrants an on-going, increasingly effective, voice in the decisions taken in their home communities.

On the flip side, remittances have inflated the price of land and property in some communities, as many migrants use remittances to purchase property in their native community with the intention of eventually returning to live there. In some villages, the large houses they have built remain empty most or all of the year, too expensive to rent at local rates.

Migrants have acquired some political power. This has been recognized by the Mexican government which has introduced mechanisms allowing Mexican migrants to register and vote in presidential elections.

Case study: remittances received by Tlacolula (Oaxaca).

The city of Tlacolula, in Oaxaca, has about 13,500 inhabitants and is a marketing center for surrounding municipalities. Remittance funds sent back to Tlacolula is first used to pay off any debts incurred in financing the trip to the USA. Most of the remainder is then used to build houses. In the past decade, the value of land and building materials has risen extremely rapidly. For instance, it is reported that a 400-square-meter building plot that cost $10,000 (dollars) a decade ago now costs about $60,000. Returning migrants do not always bring savings back with them, but do bring new skills, and possibly tools, such as those required to be an electrician or plumber.

Active participants in globalization

As the World Bank study states, “The families and communities affected by remittances are active participants in globalization. In addition to exchanging funds, they maintain ties between migrants and their origins, as people move north, and money moves south. The exchange does not stop with personal family remittances. Links between communities on either side of the border are also fostered through home town associations (HTAs).” We will look more closely at HTAs in a future post.

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Happy Christmas from Geo-Mexico! Mexico City sets up world’s largest nativity scene…

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Dec 232011
 

Mexico City authorities have set up largest nativity scene in the world as part of their Christmas festivities. The nativity scene, which cost two million dollars to create, was opened by Mayor Marcelo Ebrard in early December and is located in the parking lot of the city’s giant Estadio Azteca (Aztec stadium).

The nativity scene covers 20,000 square meters (215,000 sq. ft.) and has 5,000 figures and 700 tons of infrastructure. It incorporates 57 smaller scenes that recall the biblical passages related to the birth of Jesus in Bethlehem more than 2,000 years ago.

The world's largest Nativity Scene

It took a team of architects, engineers, designers and historians, among others, 70 days to create the displays. Many of the pieces and figures, including camels, donkeys, elephants, the Three Kings, an angel and some of the residents of Bethlehem, were crafted by Mexican artisans.

According to the Mexico City government, the scene has set two Guinness world records, one for the largest nativity scene in the world and another for having the greatest number of figures for a scene of this type.

Organizers expect more than one million people will view the scene before it is dismantled in mid-January.

The world's largest Nativity Scene. Credit: Mario Guzman / EPA

The world's largest Nativity Scene. Credit: Mario Guzman / EPA

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The widening income gap in Mexico; the rich earn 26 times more than the poor

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Dec 202011
 

A recent OECD (Organisation for Economic Cooperation and Development) study – “Divided We Stand: Why Inequality Keeps Rising” – shows that in the last 25 years, the “real” (adjusted for inflation) income of the richest 10% of Mexican households has risen by 1.7%, compared to only 0.8% for the poorest 10% of  households.

The gap between rich and poor for OECD members is at its highest for 30 years. Mexico has the dubious distinction of being the OECD member with the second largest gap in household incomes, exceeded only by Chile. The average income of the richest 10% of households in Mexico is now a staggering 26 times higher than the average income for the poorest 10% of households.

To quote the OECD report: “The income gap has risen even in traditionally egalitarian countries, such as Germany, Denmark and Sweden, from 5 to 1 in the 1980s to 6 to 1 today. The gap is 10 to 1 in Italy, Japan, Korea and the United Kingdom, and higher still, at 14 to 1 in Israel, Turkey and the United States.” The mean value for all OECD members is slightly less than 9.

In 2008, the richest homes in Mexico had an average income of 228,900 pesos (about 20,800 dollars at the then exchange rate), compared to just 8,700 pesos (790 dollars) for the poorest 10% of homes.

Looking at some of the factors likely to have caused the widening gap, the OECD report points out that, “Societal changes – more single people and single-parent households, more partners marrying within the same earnings classes – explained more than 70% of the increase in household earnings inequality. In other OECD countries, this factor was much less important. At the same time, women’s higher employment rates helped reducing household earnings inequality considerably.”

Full 400-page report:

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Dec 172011
 

Mexico’s Magic Town (Pueblo Mágico) designation is given to inland destinations that offer a complementary tourism based on historic and cultural attributes. Mexico’s federal Tourism Secretariat has announced there will be 52 Magic Towns by 2012, when the promotional program is due to end. Mexico currently has 48 Magic Towns. Since our list earlier this year (see Mexico adds three more Magic Towns to its list) four more towns have been added to the select club. All are well worth visiting!

Magic Town #45: El Oro de Hidalgo (State of México)

The small town of El Oro (population about 6,000) is in the western part of the State of México, close to the state limit with Michoacán. It is a former mining town which was largely abandoned when its mineral reserves (gold) ran out. It has several very attractive old buildings and a state Mining Museum.

Magic Town #46: Xico (Veracruz)

Xico is located in the central part of Veracruz state, about 25 km from the state capital Xalapa, in an agricultural area known for tropical fruits and coffee. In the vicinity are the Texolo waterfalls, where the movie “Romancing the Stone” was filmed. Xico holds a lively annual fair every July, complete with colorful sawdust carpets and bull-running.

Magic Town #47: San Sebastián del Oeste (Jalisco)

San Sebastián del Oeste is another enchanting old mining town, founded in 1605, located in the rugged mountains which separate the interior valleys of central Jalisco from the Pacific Coast, at an altitude of 1500 meters (5,000 feet) above sea level. Local mines yielded a fortune in gold, silver and copper, before the town lapsed into quiet lassitude once the ore reserves were exhausted. It is amazing to think that all the salt used in the silver processing had to be brought on horseback over the mountains from a tiny primitive port called Puerto de las Peñas, at the mouth of the River Cuale, a port now known as… Puerto Vallarta!

San Sebastián del Oeste

San Sebastián del Oeste

Magic Town #48: Xilitla (San Luis Potosí)

The town of Xilitla is set in luxuriant rainforested mountains in San Luis Potosí. It is best known as the site of Las Pozas, Edward James’ surrealist jungle fantasy. To read more about Xilita, try the following articles on MexConnect:

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Rapid Improvements in housing, especially for Mexico’s poorest

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Dec 152011
 

The 2010 census provides many indicators of minimal housing quality such as sanitary drainage (indoor drains and toilets), electricity, piped water, overcrowding, and dirt floors. A previous post discussed the rapid expansion of household electricity, especially in remote areas. This post focuses on the other measures of housing quality, and considers three different scales: national, state and municipality.

The national situation

All measures of minimal housing quality improved significantly between 2000 and 2010. The proportion of Mexicans living in houses without sanitary drainage went from 9.9% in 2000 all the way down to 3.6% in 2010, a decline of almost two-thirds. Those without piped water went from 11.2% to 8.6%. It is interesting that many Mexicans that have indoor toilets do not have piped water. The reason for this is that sanitary drainage needs only pipes and gravity while piped water requires pressure-holding plumbing, and pumps driven by either electric or diesel power. Those without piped water must carry water into the house either by bucket or take delivery from a pipa (water truck).

The availability of both sanitary drainage and piped water are extremely important to health, particularly infant health. When a household has piped water, it uses far more water for bathing and mopping, as well as for cleaning food, utensils, clothing etc. This results in far less contamination and disease.

The number of Mexicans living in houses with dirt floors declined by over half, dropping from 14.8% down to 6.6%. Dirt floors are also associated with greater contamination and disease. Overcrowding, defined as more than two persons a room, is still an issue in virtually all areas of Mexico. The proportion living in homes with more than two persons a room went from 45.9% in 2000 to 36.5% in 2010. This is a significant improvement, but more than a third of Mexicans still live in overcrowded housing.

Comparisons between states

Chiapas and Oaxaca made spectacular progress in providing sanitary drainage. The proportion without sanitary drainage was cut by about three quarters. In Chiapas it went from 19.3% down to 5.1%. In Oaxaca, it dropped from 18.1% to only 4.0%. Other states with very impressive improvements include Zacatecas (19.7% to 6.7%), Hidalgo (17.2% to 6.0%), Puebla (11.9% to 3.1%), Michoacán (11.4% to 3.8%) and Veracruz (10.2% to 2.6%). The state with the highest proportion without sanitary drainage is Guerrero with 19.6% (down from 35.2% in 2000). The second highest is Yucatán at 12.6% (down from 24.0%). The lowest rates are in the Federal District (0.1%), followed by Nuevo León and Baja California (each with 0.4%).

Mexican housingProgress in providing piped water was far less impressive. The situation is worst in Guerrero where the proportion without piped water actually increased from 29.5% to 29.8%. The situation also deteriorated in Morelos (7.3% to 8.2%), Baja California Sur (6.3% to 7.1%), Quintana Roo (5.3% to 6.2%) and the Federal District (1.5% to 1.8%). These states experienced the expansion of low quality informal housing without piped water.

Progress in reducing the proportion living with dirt floors was considerably better, especially in the poorest states: Oaxaca, from 41.6% 2000 down to 19.3% in 2010; Chiapas, 40.9% to 15.7%; Guerrero, 40.0% to 19.6%; Veracruz, 29.3% to 12.4%; Puebla, 24.1% to 9.9%; San Luis Potosi, 23.7% to 9.1%; and Michoacán, 19.9% to 11.0%.

Like the other housing measures, overcrowding (more than two persons a room) is worse in the poorer states. The proportion is highest in Chiapas at 53.9% (down from 65.0% in 2000). Other states with high levels are Guerrero (50.2%), Oaxaca (46.5%), Campeche (46.0%) and Puebla (44.6%). All Mexican states reduced overcrowding by about 25%. Even in wealthy states, overcrowding is significant with the Federal District registering 26.1%, Baja California 29.1% and Nuevo León 29.8%.

The situation in Mexico’s poorest municipalities

Housing is particularly bad in Mexico’s 100 poorest municipalities, which tend to be rural communities occupied by indigenous groups. On average, 21% of the 1.5 million residents of these municipalities do not have sanitary drainage, 47% lack piped water, 64% live in overcrowded housing, 33% have dirt floors and 19% lack electricity.

On a positive note, many of these municipalities have made outstanding progress since 2000. For example, several communities reduced the proportion without sanitary drainage from over 40% to less than 5%. Others increased the percentage with piped water from less than 30% to over 60%. The proportion with dirt floors in several municipalities went from over 60% to less than 20%.

Some of these poor communities now score quite high on some housing variables. For example, in 20 of the 100 municipalities, 98% have sanitary drainage; however in 10 of these 20, over half the people lack piped water. On the other hand, in five of the poorest 100 municipalities, over 90% of the people have piped water. In nine of the 100, less than 15% live with dirt floors. These data reveal that poor housing in Mexico is characterized by a variety of different deficiencies. However, one conclusion is clear: overcrowding remains a problem in all the poorest 100 municipalities. In only seven of the 100 is overcrowding less than 60%; it is over 80% in 78 of Mexico’s 100 poorest communities.

Source of data:

CONAPO, “Índice de marginación por entidad federativa y municipio, 2010” México D.F., October 2011.

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Value-added from solid waste in Mexico

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Dec 142011
 

In a previous post, we looked briefly at the role of plastics recycling in Mexico City’s waste separation program. In this post, we describe two other developments related to solid waste disposal.

Recycling finally reaches the take-off point in Mexico

Nationwide, it took an entire decade for the plastics recycling rate in Mexico to increase from 10 to 15%. Then, in 2010, as more companies sought part of a potentially very lucrative market, the rate shot up to 17%. Admittedly, though, Mexico still lags far behind the 22% rate boasted by the European Union members in this regard.

Mexican industry generates 3.8 million metric tons of plastic waste a year (36% of it in Mexico City). The nationwide recycling capacity for plastics (geared towards hard plastic or PET) currently stands at only 646,000 metric tons, so there is plenty of room for more companies and recycling plants.

Garbage-powered street lights

The World Bank is helping finance a new bio-energy project in Monterrery which will reduce emissions by the equivalent of a million tons of CO2. This is about the same quantity as the annual emissions of 90,000 vehicles, or the amount of CO2 that would be absorbed annually by a forest with an area of 970 hectares.

The project, run by Bioenergía de Nuevo León, uses methane gas given off by decomposing garbage in one of the city’s landfills, in Salinas Victoria, which receives 5000 tons of garbage a day. The power plant’s installed generation capacity of 17mW should be sufficient to supply 90% of the nighttime street lighting in the Monterrey metro area. During the day, power from the project is supplied to the city’s metro system. Any surplus is sold to the Federal Electricity Commission and fed into the national grid.

photo of garbage

Recycling has a long way to go...

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What factors influence the decision about how to send remittances home?

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Dec 122011
 

In an earlier post –International financial flows: how do Mexican migrants send remittances back home?– we looked at some of the ways used by Mexican migrants to send remittance payments back to their families and friends in Mexico. The World Bank study headed by Raúl Hernández-Coss (2005) breaks down the discussion about how remittance payments are made into three distinct stages (see diagram):

1. First Mile – how the sender of a remittance payment decides where and how to initiate the transfer.
2. Transfer (intermediary stage) – several financial systems combine to transfer funds.
3. Last Mile – how the recipient gains access to the funds that have been sent.

Summary of remittance flows. Source: World Bank report (details in text)

Summary of remittance flows. Source: World Bank report (details in text)

This post looks at the “First Mile“.

What factors influence the choices made by the sender of the remittances?

The World Bank researchers conclude that several factors are important considerations for the senders of remittances.

  • the ease of access to formal channels. Is there a bank or credit union close to where they live or work?
  • their level of financial awareness. Many migrants have limited experience of international financial transactions. Many do not have bank accounts.
  • the perceived reliability of the service. Many Mexican do not trust banks.
  • familiarity with the company providing the service. This is strongly influenced by “cultural” familiarity. Sending a wire transfer from a US branch of a Mexican supermarket chain, for example, might be preferred over a US bank with an unfamiliar name.
  • the desire for anonymity. Using formal channels requires photo-identification. Some migrants prefer informal channels for this reason alone.
  • their knowledge of “the Final Mile”. If they are sending funds to a remote village, far from a bank, they may opt to rely on a friend or relative carrying cash on their behalf back to their families, rather than involve their family in a lengthy and potentially costly trip to the nearest bank. This factor is becoming less of an issue. In recent years, formal banking channels have extended into many (though not yet all) small towns in the migrants’ home states in Mexico, offering recipients of remittances easier access to funds sent through formal channels.
  • the costs (see below) of the alternative transfer methods available
  • their legal status. For formal transfers, some form of photo-identification is normally required. Undocumented migrants do not normally have this option. (but see below)

Two recent trends are worth examining in more detail:

1. The declining cost of making a remittance transfer

Remittance senders have to take into account the relative expenses associated with competing transfer options. The average cost of making transfers has dropped dramatically in recent years. The sharpest falls came about a decade ago. For example, the average fee fell from $26.12 in 1999 to $12.84 in 2003, a drop of more than 50%.

Why has this happened?

  • The Mexican government has policies that encourage lower fees at the recipient’s end of the transfer.
  • Increased competition among private sector companies for a share of the international transfer market has forced prices down.
  • Improved technologies have made transfers faster (close to instantaneous), and lowered administrative costs associated with transfers [think automatic computerized systems instead of paper-pushing clerks!]

Lower prices have made it less attractive to use unregulated informal methods. In many cases informal methods are now significantly more expensive than most of the options involving a formal bank-to-bank transfer.

2. High-security consular certificates

In order to make it easier for undocumented workers to send funds back home safely, the Mexican government issues an official identity document through its consulates in the USA.

Mexican consulates began issuing these certificates as long ago as 1871! The certificates are now called the Matrícula Consular de Alta Seguridad (MCAS).  The Mexican government negotiated for their acceptance by US authorities, including homeland security.

The current high-security version of the MCAS, recognized by international law, is accepted in more than 30 states, 400 cities, 1,000 police agencies and 280 banking institutions, including Wells Fargo, Bank of America, US Bank, Citibank and HSBC. It has allowed many Mexicans to access, for the first time, formal channels for sending remittances back home.

There are four basic requirements to get an MCAS:

  • Proof of nationality (eg Mexican birth certificate, passport, or formal declaration of Mexican nationality)
  • Proof of identity (any official ID card issued in Mexico or elsewhere, including any passport, drivers licenses, voter card, official school records, etc)
  • Proof of residency (a utility bill or official correspondence with that address)
  • Payment of a processing fee of $26.

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The rapid expansion of electricity provision in Mexico

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Dec 092011
 

In the past two decades, Mexico has made very impressive progress in providing electricity to its citizens, especially those living in rural areas. The 87.5% of Mexicans that had electricity in 1990 lived mostly in cities and towns. Many of the 95.0% that had electricity in 2000 lived in rural areas. The proportion without electricity was cut way down to only 1.8% by 2010.

During the past decade, virtually all those who obtained electricity for the first time lived in rural areas. The gains in some states were very impressive. The proportion without electricity in Oaxaca went from 13% in 2000 to 5% in 2010. In San Luis Potosí and Chiapas it fell from 12% to only 4%. In Veracruz it dropped from 11% to just 3% and in Tabasco it went from 5.8% to only 1.2%.

Postage stamp commemorating the nationalization of Mexico's electricity industry

The states with the highest proportion without electricity in 2010 were Oaxaca (4.93%), Guerrero (4.38%) and Durango (4.19%). At the other end, were the Federal District (0.08%), Nuevo León (0.30%), Coahuila (0.54%) and Colima (0.59%).

Mexico may never be able to provide electricity to 100% of its citizens, since there are too many people living in very remote areas. In about 8% of municipalities (199 of 2456), more than 10% of the people lack electricity. Of these 199 municipalities, 81 are in Oaxaca, which has 570 municipalities, far more than any other state. Many of the other poorly serviced municipalities are in the relatively poor southern states of Guerrero (15), Veracruz (12), Chiapas (9), Puebla (7) and Michoacán (7).

A surprisingly number of these 199 municipalities are in two northern states: Chihuahua with 16 and Durango with 9. In fact, in 14 Chihuahua municipalities, over 25% of the population lack electricity and in 5 of these over 50% do not have electricity. In Durango the situation is only slightly better: in four municipalities over 25% lack electricity and in one of these 66% do not have electricity. These are among the worst-serviced communities in all of Mexico. In the whole country there are only 9 municipalities where over half the residents do not have electricity and 6 of these 9 are in Chihuahua or Durango. These very poorly-serviced areas are sparsely populated municipalities near the Copper Canyon, occupied mostly by the Tarahumara indigenous group.

Though there are sizable pockets of Mexicans that do have electricity, it is very impressive that, as of 2010, over 98% had access to power.

Source for data:

 CONAPO,Índice de marginación por entidad federativa y municipio. 2010” México D.F., October 2011.

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Dramatic fall in grain production means higher imports

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Dec 082011
 

Mexico’s production of basic grains has fallen 8.5% this year (compared to 2010) to 28.5 million metric tons, according to FAO (Food and Agriculture Organization) estimates. This is a very serious fall, exceeded (on a percentage basis) only by South Africa (15.8%) and Ethiopia (11.3%).

As a result of the fall in production (largely due to the drought affecting much of the northern part of the country), Mexico is expected to import about 11 million tons of grain, mainly corn, almost a million tons more than last year.

Mexico was the world’s 6th largest grain producer in 2010, but has fallen to 8th spot in 2011, overtaken by Russia and Argentina. The world’s five largest grain producers are USA, China, European Union, Brazil and India. Countries lagging behind Mexico for production of basic grains include Canada, Australia, Indonesia and Nigeria.

Dec 072011
 

The federal government has announced a six-year overhaul of Mexico’s domestic natural gas market, coupled with building some major extensions to the existing natural gas pipeline network.

Recent discoveries of massive reserves of shale gas have prompted the government to abandon plans to build more nuclear power stations and focus more attention on natural gas. New combined-cycle power stations are planned, alongside 4,400 km of new pipelines, which will be funded by 8 billion dollars of public-private financing and bring natural gas to more than 5 million potential consumers for the first time.

The expansion of Mexico’s pipeline network will extend the system into four states–Zacatecas, Colima, Sinaloa and Morelos–where natural gas was previously unavailable. The improvements in infrastructure should persuade many businesses to switch from oil and liquid petroleum gas to cleaner and less expensive natural gas.

Projected gas pipeline network, 2020.

Mexico's projected natural gas pipeline network, 2020.

The major projects are shown on the map (green pipelines already exist). The Manzanillo-Guadalajara section (shown in red) is already built and being subjected to final testing before being brought on-stream early in 2012. It will immediately increase the competitiveness of companies in several key parts of central Mexico.

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Mexico’s 2011 drought is raising the price of basic foodstuffs

 Mexico's geography in the Press  Comments Off on Mexico’s 2011 drought is raising the price of basic foodstuffs
Dec 052011
 

This year’s drought – see Many states in Mexico badly affected by drought is now widely viewed as the worst to occur since modern record-keeping for precipitation began about 80 years ago.

Short-term droughts are not unusual in Mexico. As the graph shows, there is a clear cyclical pattern to the timing of short-term droughts in Mexico. This is because most of the country receives almost all its annual precipitation in just a few months, from May or June (depending on precise location) to September-October.

The scale of the current drought is readily apparent from the graph. This year, far more of the country is affected, and the level of drought is far more severe.

Seasonal drought in Mexico, 2003-2012
Seasonal drought in Mexico, 2003-2012. Click to enlarge.

The drought is having numerous adverse impacts

It is already having an effect on food prices. Several of the basic foodstuffs  making up Mexico’s basic basket of goods for economic indices such as the inflation index, have risen sharply in price in recent months. A shortage of corn has led to a 70% increase in imports of yellow corn from the USA.

Incredibly, Mexico, the home of corn, is now the world’s second largest importer. Corn, as we have noted in previous posts, is a vital ingredient in Mexican cuisine, and is particularly important in the southern half of the country, especially in the more rural and indigenous areas. The shortage of corn has led to a rise in the price of tortillas, a dietary staple in almost all of the country. Tortilla prices have risen up to 18%, many times Mexico’s overall inflation rate of about 3.5%.

The production of chiles, another staple of the Mexican diet, has also fallen due to the drought, by an estimated 40%. In Zacatecas, that state’s 2,500 chile-growers will have produced 120,000 tons of green chile and 62,150 tons of dried chile this year, even though they have only been able to harvest chiles twice this year, rather than the normal four times. The state is the leading source of dried chile in Mexico. The area cultivated for chiles in Zacatecas has also fallen this year, to 31,300 hectares. The decrease in production has had a direct impact on the number of harvesting jobs available, since each hectare of chile cultivation usually means 150 seasonal jobs. The production shortage for chiles will be offset by more imports from Peru and China.

At latest count, 770 municipalities are now suffering from drought, and at least 2.5 million people in 1500 communities are left with insufficient drinking water. In the state of Durango alone, more than one million people are currently experiencing extreme drought, and 149 communities are completely without drinking water.

The long-term outlook is not favorable for these areas since climate change is expected to increase both the frequency and severity of droughts over the next twenty to thirty years.

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The important but often overlooked state of Puebla

 Other  Comments Off on The important but often overlooked state of Puebla
Dec 022011
 

The interesting and important state of Puebla is often overlooked because it is overshadowed by nearby Mexico City. In fact the western state border of Puebla is within 35 kilometers of the eastern edge of the Federal District. The state of Puebla also may be overlooked because it is rather small in area, ranking only 21st among Mexico’s 32 states. On the other hand, its 2010 population of nearly 5.8 million ranks it 5th behind only Mexico State, the Mexico City Federal District, Veracruz and Jalisco.

Though small in size, Puebla is very diverse. The topography is rugged and elevations range from under 100 meters in the northeast to volcanoes  rising over 5,000 meters above sea level, both to the east (Orizaba – 5,636m) and west (Popocatepetl – 5,410m and Iztaccihuatl – 5,230m). These extremes in elevation give Puebla a very wide range of climates and ecosystems, from semi-tropical rainforests and grasslands to highland forests and alpine ice packs.

Almost inevitably, given its high population density (168.5 inhabitants/square kilometer), many of these ecosystems have been degraded. Several of the most attractive natural areas are now protected. They include the Izta-Popo Zoquiapán, La Malinche and Pico de Orizaba National Parks as well as the very large Tehuacán-Cuicatlán Biosphere Reserve, which has over 100 different mammal species, 16 of which exist nowhere else on the planet.

Puebla also has significant social and ethnic diversity. There are numerous wealthy people and upscale areas in Puebla City, which has the eighth highest 2005 Human Development Index (HDI) score among major Mexican cities, behind only Mexico City, Chihuahua City, Monterrey, Querétaro City, Cancún, Torreón and Cuernavaca. Most people are surprised it comes out ahead of Guadalajara and Zapopan.

On the other hand, the state as a whole is rather poor. Based on its relatively poor levels of infant mortality, literacy, school enrollment, and income levels, the state ranks 28th of 32 states in terms of 2008 Human Development Index. Puebla is tied with Michoacán and ahead of only Chiapas, Guerrero and Oaxaca[1]. It also ranks 28th in illiteracy which is over 10% (2010); however 96% of the 6 to 11-year-olds now attend school, and illiteracy for those between the ages of 15 and 25 is less than 3%. While 98% of homes now have electricity, over half of Puebla’s workers make less than $115 pesos ($8.20US) a day. Approximately two/thirds of the state’s population live below the Mexican poverty line. The state’s high level of poverty is partially due to its indigenous population of almost one million and the fact that almost 30% of its inhabitants live in rural areas, some of them quite remote.

The city of Puebla is the heart of a Metropolitan Area which extends across state lines to the city of Tlaxcala. Metropolitan Puebla-Tlaxcala is the country’s 4th largest urban area with a population over 3.1 million, but is overshadowed by Mexico City, the eastern edge of which is less than 30 minutes by expressway. In fact, some urban specialists suggest that these two major metropolitan areas may merge in the future. On the other hand, the mighty Popocatepetl and Iztaccihuatl volcanoes, both over 5,000 meters in height, lie directly between the two cities. The high speed expressway skirts around the north side of the volcanoes.

The city of Puebla has long had strategic significance. The city was initially established during the colonial period owing to its strategic location between Mexico City and Veracruz, the dominant port for shipments to and from Spain. Puebla was the country’s second largest city for more than three centuries up until the mid 19th century. The Mexico City-Puebla railway was completed in 1869, but the main line to Veracruz bypassed the city, which diminished its comparative advantage, and resulted in it dropping to fourth place, overtaken by Guadalajara and Monterrey.

The state’s historical importance is evidenced by numerous important military confrontations, including the massacre of Cholula (1519), Santa Ana’s siege of Puebla City (1845), American General Winfield Scott’s occupation (1845-48), the “Cinco de Mayo” battle of Puebla against the French (1862), the French victory in the Second Battle of Puebla (1863), and occupation by the Zapatistas during the Mexican Revolution. The state is the birthplace of four Mexican Presidents: Ignacio Comonfort (1855–1858), Juan N. Méndez (1876–1877), Manuel Ávila Camacho (1940–1946) and Gustavo Díaz Ordaz (1964–1970).

Despite the state’s relative poverty, industrial development has been significant and Puebla has become one of Mexico’s most industrialized states. Since colonial times Puebla has been an important center for the textile and ceramic industries. Much of Mexico’s famous talavera pottery is made in Puebla. Talavera came to Puebla from Talavera, Spain, which in turn had acquired it from Arab traders who originally brought it from China.

Since the mid 20th century Puebla has become a very important modern industrial area. The most important manufacturing activities are metals, chemicals, electronics, textiles and particularly motor vehicles. The Volkswagen plant in Puebla is one of the largest outside Germany. In July 2003 it produced the very last of the over 21 million old “Beetles” built by VW. The plant now produces New Beetles, Jettas and Boras that are exported worldwide. The motor vehicle assembly industry is supported by scores of automobile parts factories in the state.

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