Mexico’s economy, the world’s 11th largest, is growing rapidly and predicted by many analysts to become the world’s fifth largest by 2050. It is not, therefore, surprising that, according to a recent report on key emerging markets from Spanish bank BBVA, investments in emerging markets are assuming more and more importance. However, the all-encompassing term “emerging market” covers a multitude of countries whose individual economies are incredibly diverse. It includes not only major economies such as those of China, India and Mexico, but also a host of tiny island states such as Grenada, Vanuatu and the Seychelles.
BRICs or EAGLE?
Economists have suggested various sub-groupings of emerging markets. One of the most commonly used in geography is BRIC, an acronym formed from the initial letters of Brazil, Russia, India and China. The term BRIC was first coined by Jim O’Neill in a 2001 paper entitled “The World Needs Better Economic BRICs”. The concept of BRICs has become outdated as the four countries’ economies have diverged over the past decade. Any term comprised of country names will inevitably date fairly quickly, and become much less useful.
Now, BBVA has proposed the use of the term EAGLE to cover the world’s Emerging and Growth-Leading Economies. The member states of this exclusive EAGLEs club are:
- China
- India
- Brazil
- Russia
- South Korea
- Indonesia
- Mexico
- Turkey
- Eqypt
- Taiwan
These ten countries are each expected to contribute more to global economic growth than the average of G7 members. Combined, the ten EAGLEs are expected to account for 50% of all global growth in the next 10 years.
A further eleven countries—Nigeria, Poland, South Africa, Thailand, Colombia, Vietnam, Bangladesh, Malaysia, Argentina, Peru and the Philippines—are identified by BBVA as having the potential to join the EAGLEs if their economies grow more than expected.
The BRIC is dead! The EAGLEs are rising! Long live the EAGLEs!
Mexico’s economy and workforce are analyzed in chapters 14 to 20 of Geo-Mexico: the geography and dynamics of modern Mexico. Ask your library to buy a copy of this handy reference guide to all aspects of Mexico’s geography today! Better yet, order your own copy…
4 Responses to “BRICs or EAGLEs? Mexico’s place in global economic growth”
Sorry, the comment form is closed at this time.
Where is Iran? In my opinion it should be included as an “Eagle” before Egypt. It is far bigger economically.
Good point! I’m not sure this would be BBVA’s only argument, but their main argument would almost certainly be that Iran’s economy is not growing robustly, whereas they think Egypt’s economy is. Obviously any such classification is inevitably somewhat subjective. As I see it, the majoe advantage of EAGLEs is that unlike BRICs does not immediatley identify the countries, so anhy unexpected change in fortunes could easily be accommodated by the term.
Why is Taiwan included? Taiwan is hardly “emerging”. It has already emerged. Its per capita GDP is higher than Japan’s and most European countries. If Taiwan is included, why not Singapore and Hong Kong?
I agree that there will always be “grey areas” any time a term like “emerging” is used. In the case of the EAGLEs, at least it results in a memorable acronym!
Re Taiwan, as I understand it, in the context of the EAGLEs, the countries were selected for inclusion solely based on their likely contribution to future “global economic growth”. As mentioned in the post, the ten EAGLEs countries are each expected to contribute more to global economic growth than the average of G7 members, and this is apparently not the case for Singapore or Hong Kong. However, one important point about the EAGLEs is that the term does not limit the countries that could be included in future revisions [unlike the term BRICs which was country-specific], so maybe Singapore and HK will be considered EAGLEs at some point in the future.