Apr 132013

In an earlier post, we described President Enrique Peña Nieto’s very ambitious “Pact for Mexico”. Very briefly, the Pact addresses 95 important issues in five broad categories: reducing violence, combating poverty, boosting economic growth, reforming education, and fostering social responsibility.

Achieving these reforms will require passage of new legislation by a majority in both houses and signed into law by the President. Many of the reforms will require passage of Constitutional amendments which require two-thirds majority in each house as well as approval by at least half of the states.

Passing the reforms will be a real challenge because the President’s party, PRI (Partido Revolucionario Institucional, Institutional Revolutionary Party), holds only 41.4% of the seats in the Chamber of Deputies (207 of 500) and 40.6% of the seats in the Senate (52 of 128). If they join forces with their natural ally PVEM (Partido Verde Ecologísta de México, Green Party), they still fall short of a majority: 48.2% in the Chamber and 47.7% in the Senate. While some important leaders of PAN (Partido Acción Nacional, National Action Party) and PRD (Partido de la Revolución Democrática, Party of the Democratic Revolution), Mexico’s two other major parties, have “signed” on to the Pact and are serving on the Pact Implementation Committee, many PAN and PRD members have not formally supported it.

If PRI gets complete support from the PRD and the other two leftist parties PT (Partido del Trabajo, Labor Party) and MC (Movimiento Ciudadano (Citizens’ Movement, formerly known as Convergencia or Convergence) they can pass reform legislation. But they still would be unable to pass Constitutional amendments because while they would have a two-thirds majority (68.4%) in the Chamber they would not in the Senate (62.5%). Furthermore, to get all legislators from these leftist parties to agree, they might have to make the reforms so radical that they might lose some support from some PRI and PVEM legislators.

If all PRI and PAN legislators agreed, they would have a 70.3% majority in the Senate, but would still have only 64.2% in the Chamber, less than the two-thirds majority needed to pass Constitutional amendments.

In conclusion, the only way the major “Pact for Mexico” reforms which require Constitutional amendments can be implemented is through serious bargaining and coalitions. One possible successful coalition would be PRI, PAN and PVEM; it would have 71.0% in the Chamber and 77.3% in the Senate. Such a group would probably have to opt for a more neo-liberal approach to gain PAN votes. Another, more radical coalition would be PRI, PRD, PT, CV and PVEM, which would have 75.2% in the Chamber and 69.5% in the Senate. In any case, to get reforms passed, the legislation might have to be so watered down that it would not significantly change the status quo. On the other hand, there appears to be such a groundswell of support for the “Pact for Mexico” that the existing parties may feel great pressure to move forward with meaningful reforms. Only time will tell.

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