How good were the 2010 hurricane predictions?

In an earlier post – How many hurricanes are likely in the 2010 Atlantic hurricane season? – we reported on the predictions for this year’s Atlantic/Caribbean hurricane season

How close to reality did those predictions turn out to be?

The predictions were for 8 tropical storms, 5 moderate hurricanes (1 or 2 on the Saffir-Simpson scale), and 5 severe hurricanes (3, 4 or 5 on the Saffir-Simpson scale). At the end of the season (30 November 2010), there had been 7 tropical storms, 7 moderate hurricanes and 5 major hurricanes. In total, these storms caused 259 deaths directly, and a further 23 indirectly, with total property damage estimated at US$11.4 billion. (Note that not all of these hurricanes affected Mexico).

Atlantic hurricane tracks, 2010. Created by Cyclonebiskit using Wikipedia: WikiProject Tropical cyclones/Tracks. Author: Cyclonebiskit and Syntheticalconnections

So, all in all, the predictions made before the hurricane season started were pretty close to the mark, and this hurricane season was indeed one of the most active on record.

• More details of each individual storm event in the 2010 hurricane season

Previous hurricane-related posts include:

• In which months are hurricanes most likely to strike Mexico?
• The latest Hurricane Alex news, Saturday 10 July 2010
• Hurricane Richard approaches the Yucatán Peninsula

Hurricanes and other climatological phenomena are analyzed in chapters 4 and 7 of Geo-Mexico: the geography and dynamics of modern Mexico. Buy your copy today, so you have a handy reference guide available whenever you need it.