hurricanes – Geo-Mexico, the geography of Mexico

Hurricane forecast and names for 2016

May 122016

The 2016 hurricane season in Mexico for Pacific coast storms starts on 15 May and lasts until 30 November. For Atlantic storms, the hurricane season extends from 1 June to 30 November, though most hurricane activity is concentrated in the months from July to September. Hurricanes are also known as typhoons or tropical cyclones.

I n which months are hurricanes most likely to strike Mexico?

The table shows the World Meteorological Organization’s official list of 2016 tropical storm and hurricane names. Note that male and female names alternate. Names are often reused in future years, with the exception of the names of any particularly violent storms, which are officially “retired” from the list for a long time.

2016 Hurricane Names for the Atlantic, Gulf of Mexico and Caribbean
Alex	Gaston	Lisa	Richard
Bonnie	Hermine	Matthew	Shary
Colin	Ian	Nicole	Tobias
Danielle	Julia	Otto	Virginia
Earl	Karl	Paula	Walter
Fiona

2016 Hurricane Names for the Eastern Pacific
Agatha	Georgette	Madeline	Tina
Blas	Howard	Newton	Virgil
Celia	Ivette	Orlene	Winifred
Darby	Javier	Paine	Xavier
Estelle	Kay	Roslyn	Yolanda
Frank	Lester	Seymour	Zeke

In their early season forecast for this year, Philip Klotzbach and William Gray, researchers at Colorado State University, expect hurricane activity in the Atlantic to be near-normal (ie close to the 30-year average). They predict that in the 2016 season 13 named storms will form in the Atlantic: 5 tropical storms, 6 moderate hurricanes (1 or 2 on the Saffir-Simpson scale), and 2 severe hurricanes (3, 4 or 5 on the Saffir-Simpson scale). These forecasts will be updated on 2 June and 31 July.

Last year’s Atlantic hurricane season was slightly below average in activity with 11 named storms: 5 tropical storms, 4 moderate hurricanes and 2 severe hurricanes. On the other hand, the 2015 Pacific hurricane season was the second most active on record, with 26 named storms, including 11 severe hurricanes.

In 2016, for the Pacific coast, Mexico’s National Meteorological Service (Servicio Metrológico Nacional, SMN) is expecting 17 named storms: 8 tropical storms, 5 moderate hurricanes (1 or 2 on the Saffir-Simpson scale), and 4 severe hurricanes (3, 4 or 5 on the Saffir-Simpson scale).

For the Atlantic coast, SMN) is expecting 13 named storms: 7 tropical storms, 4 moderate hurricanes and 2 severe hurricanes. On both coasts, these predictions indicate a slight increase in storm activity compared to long-term averages. The SNM publishes regular updates on hurricane activity (in Spanish) on its webpage and via its Twitter account: @huracanconagua.

Hurricanes and other climatological phenomena are analyzed in chapters 4 and 7 of Geo-Mexico: the geography and dynamics of modern Mexico. Buy your copy today, so you have a handy reference guide available whenever you need it.

Related posts:

Hurricane forecasting: better luck next time?

Mexico's geography in the Press 2 Responses »

Dec 072015

The 2015 hurricane season in Mexico for Pacific coast storms started on 15 May and ended on 30 November. For Atlantic storms, the hurricane season extended from 1 June to 30 November. Hurricanes are also known as typhoons or tropical cyclones.

This year, predictions for hurricane activity in the Atlantic were fairly close to reality, but the Pacific Coast forecast fell well short of predicting the number and severity of hurricane activity.

Atlantic and Caribbean hurricanes

The early season (May) prediction for 2015 for hurricane activity in the Atlantic was that it would be below the 1981-2012 average, with 7 named storms forming in the Atlantic: 4 tropical storms, 2 moderate hurricanes (1 or 2 on the Saffir-Simpson scale), and 1 severe hurricane (3, 4 or 5 on the Saffir-Simpson scale).

In reality, the 2015 Atlantic season did turn out to be slightly less active than the long-term average, but still saw the Caribbean and Gulf coasts affected by 11 named storms: 7 tropical storms, 2 moderate hurricanes and 2 severe hurricanes.

Eastern Pacific hurricanes

For the Pacific coast, Mexico’s National Meteorological Service (Servicio Meteorológico Nacional, SMN) was anticipating 19 named storms in 2015: 8 tropical storms, 7 moderate hurricanes, and 4 severe hurricanes. The 2015 season actually turned out to be the second most active Pacific hurricane season ever, with a total of 26 named storms: 10 tropical storms, 5 moderate hurricanes, and 11 severe hurricanes.

The number of hurricanes (16) in the eastern Pacific tied the all-time record, and the number of severe hurricanes (11) broke all previous records. The activity included Hurricane Patricia, the most powerful hurricane ever. Fortunately for most of Mexico, this storm lost power very rapidly once it came onshore.

Hurricane forecast and names for 2015

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Apr 202015

The 2015 hurricane season in Mexico for Pacific coast storms starts on 15 May and lasts until 30 November. For Atlantic storms, the hurricane season extends from 1 June to 30 November, though most hurricane activity is concentrated in the months from July to September. Hurricanes are also known as typhoons or tropical cyclones.

I n which months are hurricanes most likely to strike Mexico?

The table shows the World Meteorological Organization’s official list of 2015 tropical storm and hurricane names. Note that male and female names alternate. Names are often reused in future years, with the exception of the names of any particularly violent storms, which are officially “retired” from the list for a long time.

2015 Hurricane Names for the Atlantic, Gulf of Mexico and Caribbean
Ana	Grace	Larry	Rose
Bill	Henri	Mindy	Sam
Claudette	Ida	Nicholas	Teresa
Danny	Joaquin	Odette	Victor
Erika	Kate	Peter	Wanda
Fred

2015 Hurricane Names for the Eastern Pacific
Andres	Guillermo	Marty	Terry
Blanca	Hilda	Nora	Vivian
Carlos	Ignacio	Olaf	Waldo
Dolores	Jimena	Patricia	Xina
Enrique	Kevin	Rick	York
Felicia	Linda	Sandra	Zelda

In their early season forecast for this year, Philip Klotzbach and William Gray, researchers at Colorado State University, expect hurricane activity in the Atlantic to be below the 1981-2012 average. They predict that in the 2015 season 7 named storms will form in the Atlantic: 4 tropical storms, 2 moderate hurricanes (1 or 2 on the Saffir-Simpson scale), and 1 severe hurricanes (3, 4 or 5 on the Saffir-Simpson scale). These forecasts will be updated on 2 June and 31 July.

As expected, Pacific Ocean hurricanes were more common than usual in 2014, because it was an El Niño year. In 2014, there were 22 named storms (the highest total for 22 years), including a record-typing 16 hurricanes, of which 9 were major hurricanes. Hurricane activity in 2015 is also expected to be higher than the long-term average.

In 2015, for the Pacific coast, Mexico’s National Meteorological Service (Servicio Metrológico Nacional, SMN) is expecting 19 named storms: 8 tropical storms, 7 moderate hurricanes (1 or 2 on the Saffir-Simpson scale), and 4 severe hurricanes (3, 4 or 5 on the Saffir-Simpson scale). The SNM publishes regular updates on hurricane activity (in Spanish) on its webpage and via its Twitter account: @huracanconagua.

How accurate was the 2014 forecast?

The early season (May) prediction for 2014 (last year) was for 9 named storms in the Atlantic: 6 tropical storms, 2 moderate hurricanes and 1 severe hurricanes. This prediction proved to be the fairly accurate. In reality, the 2014 Atlantic season had 8 named storms: 2 tropical storms, 4 moderate hurricanes and 2 severe hurricanes.

Hurricane names and forecast for 2014

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Apr 172014

The 2014 hurricane season in Mexico for Pacific coast storms starts on 15 May and lasts until 30 November. For Atlantic storms, the hurricane season extends from 1 June to 30 November, though most hurricane activity is concentrated in the months from July to September. Hurricanes are also known as typhoons or tropical cyclones.

In 2013 only two hurricanes (Manuel and Ingrid) hit Mexico, but they hit simultaneously in September, leading to more than 100 storm-related deaths and millions of dollars worth of property damage in several states, especially Guerrero.

In which months are hurricanes most likely to strike Mexico?

The table shows the World Meteorological Organization’s official list of 2014 hurricane names. Note that male and female names alternate. Names are often reused in future years, with the exception of the names of any particularly violent storms, which are officially “retired” from the list for a long time.

2014 Hurricane Names for the Atlantic, Gulf of Mexico and Caribbean
Arthur	Gonzalo	Laura	Rene
Bertha	Hanna	Marco	Sally
Cristobal	Isaias	Nana	Teddy
Dolly	Josephine	Omar	Vicky
Eduourd	Kyle	Paulette	Wilfred
Fay

2014 Hurricane Names for the Eastern Pacific
Amanda	Genevieve	Marina	Trudy
Boris	Hernan	Norbert	Vance
Cristina	Iselle	Odile	Winnie
Douglas	Julio	Polo	Xavier
Elida	Karina	Rachel	Yolanda
Fausto	Lowell	Simon	Zeke

For the Atlantic coast, Mexico’s National Meteorological Service (Servicio Metrológico Nacional, SMN) is expecting 10 named storms: 3 tropical storms, 5 moderate hurricanes (1 or 2 on the Saffir-Simpson scale), and 2 severe hurricanes (3, 4 or 5 on the Saffir-Simpson scale).

In their early season forecast for this year, Philip Klotzbach and William Gray, researchers at Colorado State University, expect hurricane activity in the Atlantic to be significantly below the 1981-2012 average. They write that, “The tropical Atlantic has… cooled over the past several months, and the chances of a moderate to strong El Niño event this summer and fall appear to be quite high…. Historical data indicate fewer storms form in these conditions.” They predict that in the 2014 season 9 named storms will form in the Atlantic: 6 tropical storms, 2 moderate hurricanes (1 or 2 on the Saffir-Simpson scale), and 1 severe hurricanes (3, 4 or 5 on the Saffir-Simpson scale). These forecasts will be updated on 2 June and 31 July.

Pacific Ocean hurricanes tend to be more common in El Niño years, so this year may be more active than usual. For the Pacific coast, Mexico’s National Meteorological Service (Servicio Metrológico Nacional, SMN) is expecting 15 named storms: 5 tropical storms, 7 moderate hurricanes (1 or 2 on the Saffir-Simpson scale), and 3 severe hurricanes (3, 4 or 5 on the Saffir-Simpson scale). The SNM publishes regular updates on hurricane activity (in Spanish) on its webpage and via its Twitter account: @huracanconagua.

How accurate was the 2013 forecast?

The early season (May) prediction for 2013 (last year) was for 18 named storms in the Atlantic: 9 tropical storms, 5 moderate hurricanes and 4 severe hurricanes. This prediction proved to be the least accurate forecast in recent years. In reality, the 2013 Atlantic season had 14 named storms: 1 tropical depression, 11 tropical storms, 2 moderate hurricanes and 0 severe hurricanes. Klotzbach and Gray have since looked at the possible reasons for the poor forecast and concluded that, “It appears that the primary reason was the most significant spring weakening observed since 1950 of the Atlantic thermohaline circulation.” A summary of their findings is available here.

Related posts:

National Hurricane Agency and National Atlas of Risks

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Jan 232014

Speaking at an event to mark the 25th anniversary of the establishment of the National Water Commission (Conagua), President Enrique Peña Nieto announced that the government has allocated 170 million dollars towards modernizing the National Meteorological Service (Servicio Meteorológico Nacional, SMN).

The modernization will include establishing a National Hurricane Agency to coordinate hazard prediction, prevention and mitigation actions with state and municipal authorities to reduce the impacts of natural climatic hazard events.

Ironically, the 2013 season (shown) was the first Atlantic hurricane season since 1994 to end with no major hurricanes.

In related news, the government has also announced that progress is being made in compiling a National Atlas of Risks. The Atlas is an interactive GIS database containing details of settlements, soils, rivers, dams, highways, rail lines, river basins, oil fields, and many other factors related to the assessment of vulnerability and risk. Due to be completed by 2016, it will help all three levels of government (municipal, state, federal) decide how best to allocate hazard mitigation resources and improve the accuracy of risk assessments utilized in future planning decisions.

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Mexico battered by massive storms from both east and west (September 2013)

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Oct 192013

For the first time since 1958 Mexico was bashed virtually simultaneously by two very destructive storms: Ingrid in the east and Manuel in the west. Before discussing their destructive impact, we will describe the tracks of the two storms (photos below) and chart their chronology.

Track of Hurricane Ingrid

On September 10, weak weather disturbances were observed in the Caribbean east of the Yucatan Peninsula and in the Pacific south of Chiapas. The disturbance in the Caribbean gained some strength before hitting land which weakened it. It survived its crossing of the peninsula and re-emerged in warm waters of the southern Gulf of Mexico where it quickly gained strength. By the afternoon of September 12^th it was upgraded to an official tropical depression.

Track of Hurricane Manuel

Meanwhile the disturbance in Pacific moved slowly westward and by the morning of 13^th was upgraded to a tropical depression. At about noon of the 13^th both storms were upgraded to become named tropical storms (Ingrid and Manuel respectively) meaning they had winds of over 40 mph. In other words, the birth of “Ingrid” and “Manuel” were almost simultaneous (light green spots on the tracking maps). After earlier moving westward, both storms started to move north and slightly east picking up moisture, strength and wind speed over the warm ocean water.

Ingrid continued to move north gaining strength and by the next afternoon, the 14^th, it was upgraded to a Category I hurricane with winds of 75mph. It started to move west and winds increased to 85mph on the morning of the 15^th. Meanwhile Manuel also started to move west again skirting the coast of Guerrero and Michoacán. Early on the 15^th Manuel’s winds reached 70mph. Though wind speeds did not quite reach hurricane level at that time and the eye of Manuel never made landfall, it brought enormous amounts of rain to coastal communities. For example, on September 14^th Chilpancingo, Guerrero’s capital, got 393mm (15.5”) of rain while Acapulco got 140mm (5.5”) (Wunderground.com). This, added to considerable rain on preceding and following days, led to horrific flooding.

Satellite image of Hurricane Ingrid and Hurricane Manuel, September 2013

Satellite image of Hurricane Ingrid and Hurricane Manuel, 15 September 2013

On September 15^th Hurricane Ingrid with winds of 75-85mph drifted toward Taumalipas in northeast Mexico. Meanwhile. Tropical Storm Manuel with winds about 60mph made landfall near Manzanillo, Colima. Once over land, the storm quickly lost power; by that evening winds were down to 35mph and Manuel was downgraded to tropical depression, but heavy rainfall continued. The next morning on the 16^th Manuel’s winds were down to 30mph and it was further downgraded to a “remnant” of a tropical storm. But later that day, the remnant of Manuel move back to the Pacific Ocean near Puerto Vallarta and began to regain its strength.

That same morning September 16th Ingrid, which had weaken to a tropical storm with winds of 65mph made landfall just east of Ciudad Victoria, Tamaulipas. By the next morning, the 17^th, Ingrid’s winds were down to 25mph and it was downgraded to a “remnant” though heavy rainfall continued.

Later on the 17^th, Manuel regained its status as a tropical depression (winds of 35mph). The next morning, the 18^th, it regained tropical storm status and by that afternoon it became Hurricane Manuel with winds of 75mph. Early on the 19^th it made landfall west of Culiacan, Sinaloa. Moving east over land Manuel quickly lost power and was down to a remnant by the morning of the 20^th. However, the remnant of Manuel continued far north and east joining the remnant of Ingrid and bringing torrential rains and flooding to central Texas, including Austin.

While storms are classified by their wind speeds from tropical depressions to tropical storms and then to hurricanes with intensities one up to five; this classification does not capture the extent of damage that can be caused. The amount of rain combined with the terrain can be far more damaging than the wind speeds. Furthermore the storm surge associated with a storm’s low pressure and high tides can be far more devastating than the winds as we saw with Hurricane Rita in New Orleans and Hurricane Sandy in New York.

In the case of Manuel, the amount of rainfall was far more destructive than the winds. The rains of Manuel as a “tropical storm” off the coast of Guerrero did far more damage than Hurricane Manuel did later in the State of Sinaloa or Ingrid did in eastern Mexico. Manual caused a total of about 84 reported deaths. At least 72 people were reported dead in Guerrero and another 68 were reported missing in the town of La Pintada that was partially buried under a massive mudslide. In Acapulco about 18 died. Floods closed the exit highways and the airport, temporarily stranding 40,000 tourists. These photos from the Guardian and USAToday show the extent of flooding in Guerrero, especially around Acapulco.

In contrast fewer than a dozen people reportedly died in Sinaloa which was later directly hit by Hurricane Manual. While Ingrid had considerably stronger winds than Manuel, its death toll of only about 23 was spread across several states from Puebla just east of Mexico City up to Tamualipas on the Texas border. More than half the total, 12 died in Altotonga, Veracruz, when a mudslide smashed into a bus. Of course, deaths are not the only, nor the best, measure of a storm’s destructive impact. Other commonly used measures are the financial cost of the damage and the number of people who evacuated or become homeless. No matter what measure is used, hurricanes are one of the most destructive natural hazards.

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Hurricane names and forecast for 2013

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May 112013

The 2013 hurricane season in Mexico is underway. The “official” hurricane season is from 15 May to 30 November each year for Pacific coast storms, and from 1 June to 30 November for Atlantic storms, though most hurricane activity is concentrated in the months from July to September. Hurricanes are also known as typhoons or tropical cyclones.

In which months are hurricanes most likely to strike Mexico?

The table shows the World Meteorological Organization’s official list of 2012 hurricane names. Note that male and female names alternate. Names are often reused in future years, with the exception of the names of any particularly violent storms, which are officially “retired” from the list for a long time.

2013 Hurricane Names for the Atlantic, Gulf of Mexico and Caribbean
Andrea	Gabrielle	Lorenzo	Rebekah
Barry	Humberto	Melissa	Sebastien
Chantal	Ingrid	Nestor	Tanya
Dorian	Jerry	Olga	Van
Erin	Karen	Pablo	Wendy
Ferdinand

2013 Hurricane Names for the Eastern Pacific
Alvin	Gil	Manuel	Tico
Barbara	Henriette	Narda	Velma
Cosme	Ivo	Octave	Wallis
Dalila	Juliette	Priscilla	Xina
Erick	Kiko	Raymond	York
Flossie	Lorena	Sonia	Zelda

In their early season forecast for this year, Philip Klotzbach and William Gray, researchers at Colorado State University, expect hurricane activity in the Atlantic to be significantly higher than the 1981-2010 average. They write that, “The tropical Atlantic has anomalously warmed over the past several months, and it appears that the chances of an El Niño event this summer and fall are unlikely”. (A strong el Niño is likely to minimize Atlantic hurricane activity). They predict that in the 2013 season 18 named storms will form in the Atlantic: 9 tropical storms, 5 moderate hurricanes (1 or 2 on the Saffir-Simpson scale), and 4 severe hurricanes (3, 4 or 5 on the Saffir-Simpson scale). These forecasts will be updated on 3 June and 2 August.

For the Pacific coast, Mexico’s National Meteorological Service (Servicio Metrológico Nacional, SMN) is expecting 14 named storms: 6 tropical storms, 4 moderate hurricanes (1 or 2 on the Saffir-Simpson scale), and 4 severe hurricanes (3, 4 or 5 on the Saffir-Simpson scale). The SNM publishes regular updates on hurricane activity (in Spanish) on its webpage and via its Twitter account: @huracanconagua.

How accurate was the forecast in 2012?

The late season (3 August) prediction for 2012 (last year) was for 14 named storms in the Atlantic: 8 tropical storms, 4 moderate hurricanes and 2 severe hurricanes. In reality, the 2012 Atlantic season had 19 named storms: 9 tropical storms, 8 moderate hurricanes and 2 severe hurricanes.

Related posts:

How accurate was last year’s hurricane prediction?

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Jan 162012

The annual prediction of the hurricane activity on the Atlantic/Gulf/Caribbean side of Mexico for 2011 by Dr Philip Klotzbach and Dr. William Gray (Colorado State University) was for a slightly more active season than in 2010. For 2011, they introduced some modifications to their predictive model, which now takes into account:

Predictor 1. Gradient of sea surface temperatures (SST) in February-March between the Eastern Subtropical region of the Atlantic and the South Atlantic. This has a positive connection with hurricane activity.
Predictor 2. Air pressure at sea level in March in the Subtropical Atlantic. This has a negative connection with hurricane activity.
Predictor 3. Air pressure at sea level in February in the South-Eastern Pacific. This new variable has a positive connection with hurricane activity.
Predictor 4. Forecast made in March from Central Europe for sea surface temperatures in September for the El Niño-3 region. This new predictor has a negative connection with hurricane activity.

Tracks of Atlantic Hurricanes, 2011

In April, the prediction for the 2011 Atlantic/Caribbean hurricane season was for 16 tropical cyclones, including 7 tropical storms, 4 moderate hurricanes (Category 1 or 2 on the Saffir-Simpson scale) and 5 strong hurricanes (C 3, 4 or 5).

This prediction proved to be quite good. In the event, there were actually 19 tropical cyclones, including 12 tropical storms, 4 moderate hurricanes (C1, C2) and 3 strong hurricanes (one C3 and two C4).

Tracks of Pacific Hurricanes, 2011

On the Pacific coast, the 2011 season saw 11 tropical cyclones including 1 tropical storm, 4 moderate hurricanes and 6 strong hurricanes. Fortunately, almost all these cyclones remained out at sea and only Hurricane Jova, which reached category 3 in early October, caused any significant damage on land (see Hurricane Jova smashes into Barra de Navidad and Melaque on Mexico’s Pacific Coast).

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Hurricane Jova smashes into Barra de Navidad and Melaque on Mexico’s Pacific Coast

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Oct 142011

The twin coastal towns of Melaque and Barra de Navidad in the state of Jalisco felt the full force of Hurricane Jova earlier this week. Barra de Navidad has great historical importance as one of the shipbuilding ports where the Spanish built the ships which traversed the Pacific Ocean to the islands of the Philippines.

Full details are only beginning to emerge of the damage done, but the following links show the storm’s path, and some of its immediate impacts:

Photos of damage in Barra de Navidad
Photos of damage in Melaque
YouTube videos related to Hurricane Jova

Fortunately, Hurricane Jova had lost some of its strength by the time it slammed into the coast as a Category 2 hurricane on 12 October. It had previously packed winds of up to 160 km/hr. Even so, it brought torrential rain to coastal areas between the major resorts of Puerto Vallarta and Manzanillo, and heavy rain inland as far as Guadalajara (about 400 km from the coast). In Guadalajara, the flag-raising ceremony to mark the start of the 2011 Pan-American Games was postponed by a day because of continuous rainfall.

In Puerto Vallarta, where several Pan-American Games events are scheduled to be held, including sailing, triathlon, beach volleyball, and open water swimming, authorities secured boats and reinforced the beach volleyball courts with sandbags.

The catastrophe-modelling firm AIR Worldwide says Hurricane Jova will have caused less than $52m of damage as it hit a sparsely populated stretch of Mexico’s Pacific coast downgraded as a Category 2 hurricane.

Many smaller settlements, including Cihuatlán, La Huerta, Villa Purificacion, and Cuautitlán de García Barragán were temporarily cut off as floodwaters made the main coastal highway impassible. Streets in many towns were inundated.

Map of the beaches of Colima, Jalisco and Nayarit, Mexico

Details of the storm’s track and intensity will (in due course) be available at the National Hurricane Center’s archive for 2011 Eastern Pacific Hurricanes.

Previous hurricane-related posts include:

Hurricanes and other climatological phenomena are analyzed in chapters 4 and 7 of Geo-Mexico: the geography and dynamics of modern Mexico. Buy your copy today, so you have a handy reference guide available whenever you need it.

Atlantic and eastern Pacific hurricane names for 2011

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Apr 132011

Hurricanes are also known as typhoons or tropical cyclones. The table shows the World Meteorological Organization’s official list of 2011 hurricane names. Note that male and female names alternate. Names are often reused in future years, with the exception of the names of any particularly violent storms, which are officially “retired” from the list for a long time.

Atlantic, Gulf of Mexico and Caribbean	Eastern Pacific
Arlene	Adrian
Bret	Beatrix
Cindy	Calvin
Don	Dora
Emily	Eugene
Franklin	Fernanda
Gert	Greg
Harvey	Hilary
Irene	Irwin
Jose	Jova
Katia	Kenneth
Lee	Lidia
Maria	Max
Nate	Norma
Ophelia	Otis
Philippe	Pilar
Rina	Ramon
Sean	Selma
Tammy	Todd
Vance	Veronica
Whitney	Wiley
	Xina
	York
	Zelda

In Mexico, the “official” hurricane season is from May 15 to November 30 each year for Pacific coast storms, and from June 1 to Novemebr 30 for Atlantic storms, though most hurricane activity is concentrated in the months from July to September.

In which months are hurricanes most likely to strike Mexico?

This year, Philip Klotzbach and William Gray, researchers at Colorado State University, predict that 16 named storms will form in the Atlantic: 7 tropical storms,4 moderate hurricanes (1 or 2 on the Saffir-Simpson scale), and 5 severe hurricanes (3, 4 or 5 on the Saffir-Simpson scale).

For the Pacific coast, Mexico’s National Meteorological Service (Servicio Metrológico Nacional, SMN) is expecting 17 storms: 7 tropical storms, 6 moderate hurricanes (1 or 2 on the Saffir-Simpson scale), and 4 severe hurricanes (3, 4 or 5 on the Saffir-Simpson scale). The SNM publishes regular updates on hurricane activity (in Spanish) on its webpage and via its Twitter account: @huracanconagua.

Previous posts related to hurricane prediction:

Hurricanes and other climatic hazards are analyzed in detail in chapter 4 of Geo-Mexico: the geography and dynamics of modern Mexico.

Mexican geophysicists develop new model for hurricane forecasting

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Jan 112011

The new methods, using physics rather than mathematics as the basis, can be used to forecast the timing of Category 5 hurricanes, the most severe level on the Saffir-Simpson scale.

Category 5 hurricanes have sustained wind speeds of up to 250 km/hr, with catastrophic impacts on homes, lives and infrastructure. The most recent Category 5 hurricanes to strike Mexico are Dean (2007), Wilma (2005), Mitch (1998), Gilbert (1988) and Beulah (1967).

Scientists at the Geophysics Institute of the National University (UNAM) in Mexico City have developed a physics-based model, relying on three-dimensional imaging, which can be used to predict severe (Category 5) hurricanes. They have also pin-pointed precisely where in the deep waters of the Atlantic Ocean severe hurricanes are most likely to originate. The scientists conclude that severe hurricanes do not occur randomly in time, but tend to occur at roughly cyclical intervals, about every ten years.

Diagram showing features of the existing GFDL Hurricane Prediction System

They hope that the new techniques will improve the forecasting associated with these severe weather hazards, and offer more lead-in time for the updating and implementation of evacuation plans and other mitigation measures.

Lead investigator Víctor Manuel Velasco Herrera says that, according to the model, the next period when Category 5 hurricanes will occur will begin in 2013 and end in 2017, “with a margin of error of one year.”

Watch this space for updates in due course!

Previous posts related to hurricane prediction:

How good were the 2010 hurricane predictions?

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Dec 042010

In an earlier post – How many hurricanes are likely in the 2010 Atlantic hurricane season? – we reported on the predictions for this year’s Atlantic/Caribbean hurricane season

How close to reality did those predictions turn out to be?

The predictions were for 8 tropical storms, 5 moderate hurricanes (1 or 2 on the Saffir-Simpson scale), and 5 severe hurricanes (3, 4 or 5 on the Saffir-Simpson scale). At the end of the season (30 November 2010), there had been 7 tropical storms, 7 moderate hurricanes and 5 major hurricanes. In total, these storms caused 259 deaths directly, and a further 23 indirectly, with total property damage estimated at US$11.4 billion. (Note that not all of these hurricanes affected Mexico).

Atlantic hurricane tracks, 2010. Created by Cyclonebiskit using Wikipedia: WikiProject Tropical cyclones/Tracks. Author: Cyclonebiskit and Syntheticalconnections

So, all in all, the predictions made before the hurricane season started were pretty close to the mark, and this hurricane season was indeed one of the most active on record.

More details of each individual storm event in the 2010 hurricane season

Previous hurricane-related posts include:

In which months are hurricanes most likely to strike Mexico?

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Jul 142010

The following verse provides a way to remember how likely hurricanes are in different months of the year. It applies specifically to Atlantic (Gulf of Mexico) and Caribbean hurricanes.

June, too soon
July, stand by
August, come it must
September, remember
October, all over.

This verse matches the historical records of Atlantic and Caribbean hurricanes fairly closely. Even so, to keep everyone on their toes, hurricanes sometimes, very occasionally, develop in other months of the year.

Previous hurricane-related posts:

Hurricane Alex, 30 June – 1 July 2010

How many hurricanes are likely in the 2010 Atlantic hurricane season?

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Jul 012010

Philip Klotzbach and William Gray, of Colorado State University, have analyzed the atmospheric and oceanic conditions in the Atlantic immediately prior to the 2010 hurricane season. They conclude that this season’s hurricane activity in the Atlantic is likely to be stronger than has been the norm during the past 50 years. They predict that the Atlantic season will see 18 named storms, of which 8 will be classed as tropical storms, 5 as moderate hurricanes (1 or 2 on the Saffir-Simpson scale), and 5 as severe hurricanes (3, 4 or 5 on the Saffir-Simpson scale).

The popular press regularly warns us that on-going global warming will increase the frequency of hurricanes, and their intensity, allegedly due to warmer sea-surface temperatures in the mid-ocean hurricane-spawning areas. Klotzbach and Gray do not believe this. They studied the paths of all severe hurricanes (category 3, 4 or 5) for the fifty years from 1945-1994, dividing this time frame into two 25-year periods (see image).

Tracks of severe Atlantic hurricanes, 1945-1994. Source: Klotzbach and Gray, 2010. Link to original article at end of this post. Click image to enlarge.

From 1945-1969 was a period of weak global cooling. There were 80 severe hurricanes in this period, some of them taking very erratic paths, with correspondingly dramatic impacts when they struck areas wholly unprepared.

Between 1970 and 1994, the Earth’s temperatures underwent a modest rise (global warming). However, in stark contrast to popular belief, far fewer severe hurricanes occurred during this period (38 in total), and they tended to follow entirely predictable paths.

Clearly the science behind hurricane formation is more complicated than some journalists would have us believe!

Klotzbach and Gray demonstrate the importance of the Thermohaline Circulation (THC) in the Atlantic. The THC is a large-scale circulation in the Atlantic Ocean that is driven by fluctuations in salinity and temperature. The 1945-1969 period coincided with a strong THC, whereas the 1970-1994 period was a time when the THC was weak.

What has happened since 1994? In the fifteen years from 1995-2009 inclusive, the THC was strong, and there were 56 severe Atlantic hurricanes. By comparison, in the preceding fifteen years from 1980-1994, when the THC was weak, only 22 severe hurricanes formed. So it appears that hurricane frequency is not linked to global warming or carbon dioxide (CO2) levels in the atmosphere, but to cyclical changes in the THC.

How accurate are the predictions for the 2010 hurricane season? Only time will tell…

Click here for Klotzbach and Gray’s original article (pdf).

Hurricane warnings in Mexico are the responsibility of the National Meteorological Service (NMS). The NMS also provides an archive of information about past hurricanes.