Hurricane forecasting: better luck next time?

The 2015 hurricane season in Mexico for Pacific coast storms started on 15 May and ended on 30 November. For Atlantic storms, the hurricane season extended from 1 June to 30 November. Hurricanes are also known as typhoons or tropical cyclones.

This year, predictions for hurricane activity in the Atlantic were fairly close to reality, but the Pacific Coast forecast fell well short of predicting the number and severity of hurricane activity.

Atlantic and Caribbean hurricanes

The early season (May) prediction for 2015 for hurricane activity in the Atlantic was that it would be below the 1981-2012 average, with 7 named storms forming in the Atlantic: 4 tropical storms, 2 moderate hurricanes (1 or 2 on the Saffir-Simpson scale), and 1 severe hurricane (3, 4 or 5 on the Saffir-Simpson scale).

In reality, the 2015 Atlantic season did turn out to be slightly less active than the long-term average, but still saw the Caribbean and Gulf coasts affected by 11 named storms: 7 tropical storms, 2 moderate hurricanes and 2 severe hurricanes.

Eastern Pacific hurricanes

For the Pacific coast, Mexico’s National Meteorological Service (Servicio Meteorológico Nacional, SMN) was anticipating 19 named storms in 2015: 8 tropical storms, 7 moderate hurricanes, and 4 severe hurricanes. The 2015 season actually turned out to be the second most active Pacific hurricane season ever, with a total of 26 named storms: 10 tropical storms, 5 moderate hurricanes, and 11 severe hurricanes.

The number of hurricanes (16) in the eastern Pacific tied the all-time record, and the number of severe hurricanes (11) broke all previous records. The activity included Hurricane Patricia, the most powerful hurricane ever. Fortunately for most of Mexico, this storm lost power very rapidly once it came onshore.

• In which months are hurricanes most likely to strike Mexico?
• How will this year’s strong El Niño affect Mexico?