Search Results : 2050

Feb 232015
 

Consultancy PwC, the world’s second largest multinational professional services network has published an updated edition of The World in 2050. In the latest edition, The World in 2050: Will the shift in global economic power continue?, the authors present economic growth projections for 32 of the largest economies in the world, accounting for around 84% of global GDP.

world-2050-updated-version

“We project the world economy to grow at an average of just over 3% per annum in the period 2014 – 50, doubling in size by 2037 and nearly tripling by 2050.

But we expect a slowdown in global growth after 2020, as the rate of expansion in China and some other major emerging economies moderates to a more sustainable long-term rate, and as working age population growth slows in many large economies.

The global economic power shift away from the established advanced economies in North America, Western Europe and Japan will continue over the next 35 years. China has already overtaken the US in 2014 to become the largest economy in purchasing power parity (PPP) terms. In market exchange rate (MER) terms, we project China to overtake the US in 2028 despite its projected growth slowdown.

We project new emerging economies like Mexico and Indonesia to be larger than the UK and France by 2030 (in PPP terms) while Turkey could become larger than Italy. Nigeria and Vietnam could be the fast growing large economies over the period to 2050.”

A summary table in the PwC report shows the firm’s predictions for major economies in 2050 have Mexico continuing to progress up the world ladder, with its economy reaching world rank #6 by 2050, ahead of Japan, Russia, Nigeria and Germany.

Will the PwC forecasts turn out to be accurate? If this blog is still going strong in 2050, we promise to include an update…

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Mexico’s population will peak before 2050 but migration is harder to predict

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Jun 052010
 

Past data and current trends indicate that Mexico is adhering to the demographic transition model (see post of 15 May 2010).

Mexico's population is aging rapidly

Death rates first dropped precipitously and now birth rates are declining rapidly. By the middle of the 21st century, these will be roughly equal and natural population growth will drop to zero. Then birth rates will drop below death rates and the population will begin to decline. This is already happening in Russia, Italy, Germany and Japan.
Mexico is expected to reach this situation before 2050 when its population will be between 120 and 130 million. This is a rather wide spread for a demographic forecast because predicting the rates of Mexican immigration to the USA is very tricky. Net immigration was over 550,000 in 2006, but dropped to about 200,000 in 2009 because the employment situation in the USA was so bad. When the recession ends and jobs are again plentiful in the USA, immigration will jump back up, but how far and for how many years?

As Mexico’s population growth rates continue to decline and become negative, the new challenge will be coping with a rapidly aging population. Fortunately, Mexico will be able to learn from Europe and Japan who are already facing this challenge.

Mexico’s population dynamics are discussed in chapters 8 and 9 of Geo-Mexico: the geography and dynamics of modern Mexico.

Mexico’s population in 1990, 2010 and 2050

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Feb 082010
 

Want your very own Geo-Mexico bookmark?

This link – Population of Mexico in 1990, 2010 and 2050 – is to a pdf file of three age-sex pyramids showing the population of Mexico in the years 1990 and 2010, and the predicted population for the year 2050.

Print the file to make your own Geo-Mexico bookmark and get a fascinating insight into Mexico’s likely future population. Mexico’s population growth rate has fallen dramatically since 1990. More surprisingly, between now and 2050, the average age of people in Mexico will rise rapidly. Mexico is set to move from a predominately young population to a predominately old population in only a couple of generations.

What else can you say about Mexico’s population from a close analysis of the population pyramids? (Feel free to post your comments below)

The geography of the Spanish language: how important is Spanish around the world?

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Aug 242015
 

The Index of Human Development ranks Spanish as the second most important language on earth, behind English but ahead of Mandarin.

Spanish is the third most widely used language on the internet (graph), although less than 8% of total internet traffic takes place in Spanish. Spanish is the second most used language on Facebook, a long way behind English but well ahead of Portuguese.

Languages used on the Internet (2015). Source: Internet World Stats

Languages used on the Internet (2015). Source: Internet World Stats

According to El español, una lengua viva – Spanish, a living language, a report from the Instituto Cervantes in Spain (which promotes the Spanish language abroad via language classes and cultural events) there are about 559 million Spanish speakers worldwide. This figure includes 470 million native speakers and an additional 89 million who have some command of the language.

While Mexico remains the world’s largest Spanish-speaking country, with about 121 million Spanish speakers, second place belongs to the USA, followed by Colombia. The USA has an estimated 41 million native speakers of Spanish plus 11 million who are bilingual; Colombia has 48 million Spanish-speakers.

In terms of economic importance, the report’s authors calculate that Spanish speakers contribute 9.2% of the world’s GDP. About two-thirds of Spanish-linked GDP is generated in North America (USA, Canada and Mexico) and the European Union, while Latin America (excluding Mexico) accounts for 22%.

The main concentrations of Spanish speakers in the USA are in the states of New Mexico (47% of the population), California and Texas (both 38%), and Arizona (30%). 18% of New Yorkers speak Spanish and, somewhat surprisingly, more than 6% of Alaskans are also Spanish speakers. Interestingly, the US Census Office estimates that by 2050, the USA will have 138 million Spanish speakers and could then overtake Mexico as the largest Spanish-speaking nation in the world. This assumes that current predictions for Mexico’s population increase over the next 35 years hold true.

Want to learn more?

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Mexico has a 2015 population of 121 million people

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Jul 162015
 

The latest population estimates released by the National Population Council (Conapo) to coincide with World Population Day show that Mexico has a population in mid-2015 of 121,783,280. Of this total, almost 43 million (35.4%) are adolescents, between 10 and 29 years of age.

A spokesperson for Conapo drew attention to the fact that Mexico still needs to do more to overcome gender inequality in fields such as education, salaries and working conditions.

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A new airport for Mexico City

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Sep 032014
 

The Mexico City Benito Juárez International Airport handled 31.5 million passengers in 2013, but is operating at near capacity. To ease its congestion, the federal Communications and Transportation Secretariat (SCT) has announced plans to expand the airport eastwards, by annexing 5500 hectares of adjacent federal land bordering Lake Texcoco. The expansion will take several years to complete.

A long-term 9.2-billion-dollar master plan for the airport, with two main phases of construction, was developed by engineering consultancy Arup.

Earlier this week during his second state-of-the-nation address, President Enrique Peña Nieto announced that the winning proposal for designing the new terminal building that forms an integral part of the first phase was submitted by UK-based architect Sir Norman Foster and his Mexican associate Fernando Romero, Carlos Slim’s son-in-law, in association with Netherlands Airports Consultants.

Peña Nieto described the new airport as “the biggest infrastructure project in recent years… and one of the biggest in the world.” He emphasized that his administration was not adopting the easiest short-term path, but “choosing the responsible path”, adding that a project of this scale would inevitably extend well beyond his time in office.

He expected that the new airport would boost tourism, allow more airlines to serve Mexico City, and also help to regenerate an area that has previously suffered severe environmental degradation.

The winning design for the iconic new terminal (see video) takes the shape of an “X”, incorporates national symbols in its details, and offers ample space for airport operations, passenger services and exhibitions. The architect is confident that the new airport will be the most sustainable airport in the world, and exceed LEED platinum standards, the highest level of LEED certification.

The first stage, due to be concluded by 2020, involves construction of a new terminal building, control tower and all the infrastructure for operating two runways simultaneously, handling up to 50 million passenger movements a year. Initial work on drainage and foundations will begin later this year. The first phase will generate an estimated 50,000 direct jobs and 160,000 jobs in total.

By 2050, a second phase would have added four more runways and more than doubled the airport’s capacity to 120 million passenger movements.

Record passenger levels in Mexican airports

During the first five months of 2014, Mexico’s airports registered 26,797,688 passenger movements (about 45% international, 55% national), a new record, and 10.8% more that for the same period in 2013. Aeroméxico, the nation’s flagship carrier, accounted for 35.3% of all passenger movements in Mexico, followed by Interjet (23.4%), Volaris (23.3%) and VivaAerobus (12.5%). Aeroméxico recently added several new routes, including links from the northern industrial city of Monterrey to Aguascalientes, San Luis Potosí, Cancún, Puerto Vallarta and Los Cabos.

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Mexico’s 2014 population update: 118.4 million

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Jul 112014
 

The National Statistics Institute (INEGI) has released population updates to coincide with today’s celebration of World Population Day (11 July). According to INEGI, Mexico currently has 118.4 million people, and is the 11th most populous country in the world.

The total world population is estimated at 7.2 billion, with slightly over half that number living in one of just 6 countries: China, India, USA, Indonesia, Brazil and Pakistan. The total fertility rate (globally) fell from 3.04 children/woman (1990-1995) to 2.53 children/woman (2005-2010). In 2010, the global life expectancy stood at 68.7 years.

Projections made by Mexico’s National Population Council (CONAPO) put Mexico’s 2013 fertility rate at just 2.2 children/woman, while life expectancy has risen (slightly) to 74.5 years. The reduction of fertility rate in Mexico is occurring in a society where the average level of schooling is increasing and where women report greater economic, social and political participation.

Between 1990 and 2011, maternal mortality in Mexico was reduced by 51.5%. Infant mortality over that period also fell, from 88 to 43 deaths/100,000 live births.

The percentage of the population that is aged 30 to 59 years increased between 1990 and 2011 from 25.5 to 35.7 %, while the percentage aged 60 and older rose from 6.2 to 9.5%. The proportion of Mexico’s population that is aged 60 and older is expected to continue rising and is predicted to reach 14.8% of the total population in 2030 and 21.5% in 2050.

INEGI also reported that the four leading causes of death among Mexicans are:

  • Diabetes mellitus (14.1% of all deaths)
  • Ischaemic heart disease (12.3%)
  • Liver diseases (5.5%)
  • Cerebrovascular diseases (5.3%)

Taken together, these four diseases, classified as chronic degenerative diseases, account for 37.2% of all deaths. Clearly while life expectancy in Mexico is increasing, it is accompanied by higher levels of obesity and physical inactivity. This will place a massive strain on health care budgets in the future.

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Country groupings: BRICs, EAGLEs and now MINTs

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Jun 122014
 

Economists have long suggested various sub-groupings of emerging markets. One of the most commonly used in geography is BRIC, an acronym formed from the initial letters of Brazil, Russia, India and China. The term BRIC was first coined by  Jim O’Neill in a 2001 paper entitled “The World Needs Better Economic BRICs”. The concept of BRICs has become outdated as the four countries’ economies have diverged over the past decade.

Next on the scene was the term EAGLEs to cover the world’s Emerging and Growth-Leading Economies. The advantage of this acronym is that it is not tied to specific countries. Any term comprised of country names is likely to date fairly quickly, and become much less useful. The members of the EAGLEs club are currently:

  • Brazil
  • China
  • Eqypt
  • India
  • Indonesia
  • Mexico
  • Russia
  • South Korea
  • Taiwan
  • Turkey

Combined, these ten EAGLEs are  expected to account for 50% of all global growth that occurs over the next 10 years.

The four MINT countries

The four MINT countries

Jim O’Neill has recently popularized another contribution to the terminology of countries believed to be emerging market giants: MINTs. The term was originally coined by Fidelity Investments. The four members of this exclusive grouping are:

  • Indonesia
  • Mexico
  • Nigeria
  • Turkey

In proposing the new grouping, O’Neill makes a compelling case for Mexico’s future economic success. First, its large population ensures a viable domestic market. It also has a growing middle class and a steadily improving dependency ratio (the number of working age people compared to those not working). In addition, Mexico has a privileged position in world trade, linking North America to Asian markets. O’Neill believes that Mexico could experience double-digit rates of economic growth in the coming years, with GDP/person rising from its current figure of about 11,000 dollars to 48,000 dollars by 2050.

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Mexico’s position among the most populous countries to 2100

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Aug 122013
 

How does Mexico compare with the world’s most populous countries? Available information suggests that in 1500, before the Spaniards arrived, the population of the area that is now Mexico was roughly 15 to 20 million (McCaa 1997). At that time Mexico may have been the third most populous country behind only China and India. However, by 1600 the population had crashed to about 1.6 million, one of the most dramatic population collapses in human history. Mexico did not regain its pre-Columbian population level until about 1900. But the population declined by about 6% during the Mexican Revolution, 1910-1920.

Children in Zitácuaro, Michoacán. Photo: Tony Burton. All rights reserved.

Photo: Tony Burton. All rights reserved.

A recently published UN study, World Population Prospects, The 2012 Revision, enables us to compare Mexico’s population with that of other countries for 1950, 2013, 2050 and 2100. Slow but steady growth brought Mexico’s population up to 28 million by 1950, ranking Mexico 16th just ahead of Spain and right behind the Ukraine. Very rapid growth peaking in the 1970s increased Mexico’s population to about 120 million by 2013. [The UN report quotes Mexico’s 2013 population as 122 million, whereas Mexico’s CONAPO (National Population Commission) estimates the current population is 118.4 million, the difference perhaps due to differing assumptions about international migration.]

This ranked Mexico 11th in the world just behind Japan, but ahead of the Philippines. [The 15 most populous countries in 2013 are China (1,386m), India (1,252m), USA (320m), Indonesia (250m), Brazil (200m), Pakistan (182m), Nigeria (174m), Russia (143m), Japan (127m), Mexico (122m), Philippines (98m), Ethiopia 94m), Vietnam (92m) and Germany (83m)]

By 2020, Mexico will pass Japan to become 10th, the highest it will ever rank except for during the pre-Columbian era.

The UN study forecasts that the Mexican population will grow to 156 million by 2050. This is considerably higher that the Mexico’s National Population Commission (CONAPO) forecast, which uses higher rates of out-migration. In 2050 Mexico will be back in 11th place, having jumped ahead of Russia, but having been passed by Ethiopia and the Philippines. According to the UN study by 2050 India will have passed China, and Nigeria will have replaced the USA as the 3rd most populous.

By 2100 Mexico’s population will be down to 140 million, putting it in 16th place behind Nigeria and five other very rapidly growing African countries: Tanzania, Congo, Uganda, Niger and Kenya. Interestingly, between 2050 and 2100 all of the 31 largest countries are expected to lose population except the USA, the Philippines, and 12 African countries. The world’s total population will have essentially leveled off by 2100 at about 10.9 billion with African countries continuing to grow while European and Asian countries experience population declines. Of course many unexpected demographic changes may occur between now and 2100.

According to the study, Mexico’s life expectancy at birth will be 90.0 years in 2100, above the USA’s level of 88.8 years, but behind Canada at 91.2 years. Mexico’s total fertility rate is forecast by the UN at 1.99 children per women in 2100 which is considerably higher than rates forecast by Mexico’s CONAPO and other demographers.

Reference:

Robert McCaa, Robert. 1997. “The Peopling of Mexico from Origins to Revolution”, preliminary draft for Richard Steckel & Michael Haines (eds.), The Population History of North America, Cambridge University Press, 1997.

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Mexico’s population: now over 117 million and expected to peak at about 138 million

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Feb 282013
 

Mexico’s population in January 2013 was 117.4 million; 57.3 million males (48.8%) and 60.1million (51.2%) females according to a December 10, 2012 report by CONAPO (Consejo Nacional de Población) in Proyecciones de la población de México 2010-2050”. By January 2014 it will grow by over a million to 118.6 million. However demographic trends indicate that population growth in Mexico is declining significantly.

The birth rate is expected to fall from 19.7 births per 1,000 population in 2010 to 14.0 in 2050. As the Mexican population ages the death rate is projected to increase from 5.6 per 1,000 in 2010 to 9.2 in 2050. Consequently the annual rate of natural population growth is expected to decline from 1.41% in 2010 to 0.48% in 2050. Extrapolating the trends from the CONAPO projection suggests that death rates will surpass birth rates sometime in the by 2070s and natural population change will become negative. Of course, we must also take emigration into account.

According to the CONAPO report net emigration from Mexico was 321,000 in 2012, though some have noted that due to the Great Recession net emigration to the USA is near zero or less [Pew Research Center’s “Net Migration from Mexico Falls to Zero – and Perhaps Less”]. CONAPO expects net emigration to peak at about 689,000 by 2020 and then gradually decline to 590,000 by 2050. Given the current low levels of emigration to the USA and the rapid growth of the Mexican economy, some feel that these levels are rather high.

As a result of trends in birth rates, death rates and emigration, Mexico’s population growth rate is declining. Annual population growth is expected to fall below a million in 2017, below 500,000 in 2032 and below 100,000 by 2049. Extrapolating the rates in the CONAPO projection, Mexico’s population growth is expected to peak in 2053 at 137.6 million and then start to gradually decline. Of course, it is very difficult to accurately project emigration figures. If emigration is a third less than projected by CONAPO, then Mexico’s population could peak at 145 million.

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