Mar 312016
 

The River Atoyac, a river more than 120 kilometers (75 miles) long, in the state of Veracruz, has suddenly dried up. The dramatic disappearance of the river is believed to be due to the collapse of the roof of a cavern in the underlying limestone. This caused the formation of a narrow sinkhole, 30 meters (100 feet) long, that now swallows the river and diverts its water underground.

rio_atoyac-mapa-el-universal

Drainage basin of the Río Atoyac. Credit: El Universal

The collapse happened on Sunday 28 February; residents of the small ranch town of San Fermín heard a thunderous noise at the time. Within 48 hours, the river had disappeared.

The River Atoyac rises on the slopes of the Pico de Orizaba, Mexico’s highest peak. Unfortunately, the cavern collapse occurred only 3 kilometers from the river’s source, leaving almost all of its course dry, with potentially serious consequences for up to 10,000 people living in the river basin who have now lost their usual water supply.

The disappearance of the river will also have adverse impacts on fauna and flora, and jeopardize sugar-cane farming and other activities downstream. The fauna of the river included fresh-water crayfish (langostinos) which were an important local food source.

The municipalities affected are Amatlán de los Reyes, Atoyac, Yanga, Cuitláhuac, Felipe Carrillo Puerto, Cotaxtla, Medellìn and Boca del Río.

The course of the river approximately follows that of federal highway 150D, the main toll highway between the cities of Orizaba and Veracruz.

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Dec 072015
 

The 2015 hurricane season in Mexico for Pacific coast storms started on 15 May and ended on 30 November. For Atlantic storms, the hurricane season extended from 1 June to 30 November. Hurricanes are also known as typhoons or tropical cyclones.

saffir-simpson-scale

This year, predictions for hurricane activity in the Atlantic were fairly close to reality, but the Pacific Coast forecast fell well short of predicting the number and severity of hurricane activity.

Atlantic and Caribbean hurricanes

The early season (May) prediction for 2015 for hurricane activity in the Atlantic was that it would be below the 1981-2012 average, with 7 named storms forming in the Atlantic: 4 tropical storms, 2 moderate hurricanes (1 or 2 on the Saffir-Simpson scale), and 1 severe hurricane (3, 4 or 5 on the Saffir-Simpson scale).

In reality, the 2015 Atlantic season did turn out to be slightly less active than the long-term average, but still saw the Caribbean and Gulf coasts affected by 11 named storms: 7 tropical storms, 2 moderate hurricanes and 2 severe hurricanes.

Eastern Pacific hurricanes

For the Pacific coast, Mexico’s National Meteorological Service (Servicio Meteorológico Nacional, SMN) was anticipating 19 named storms in 2015: 8 tropical storms, 7 moderate hurricanes, and 4 severe hurricanes. The 2015 season actually turned out to be the second most active Pacific hurricane season ever, with a total of 26 named storms: 10 tropical storms, 5 moderate hurricanes, and 11 severe hurricanes.

The number of hurricanes (16) in the eastern Pacific tied the all-time record, and the number of severe hurricanes (11) broke all previous records. The activity included Hurricane Patricia, the most powerful hurricane ever. Fortunately for most of Mexico, this storm lost power very rapidly once it came onshore.

Nov 232015
 

As we discussed in this earlier post, historical analysis combined with greater climatological understanding shows that many of the worst droughts and floods in Mexico have been associated with either El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) events or with the related Pacific-North American Oscillation. Perhaps 65% of the variability of Mexican climate results from changes in these large-scale circulations.

The World Meteorological Organization (WMO) says the 2015-2016 ENSO is expected to be one of the three most powerful ENSO events since 1950 with effects that will last for up to eight months.

What will this winter’s El Niño bring? 

  • slightly higher ocean water temperature off west coast; some fish species may migrate northwards
  • some winter rain in north-west
  • increased winter storms, and cooler temperatures, along east coast; risk of flooding, mudslides
  • reduced summer rainfall in Mexico’s central highlands; risk of drought and lower crop yields

This winter, according to the Center for Scientific Investigation and Higher Education of Ensenada (CICESE), the Baja California Peninsula is likely to receive more rain than usual during this year’s very strong ENSO (El Niño) event.

The distribution of fish species is likely to change as the ocean temperatures are higher than usual, resulting in the migration of some species, leaving fewer fish off the coast of Baja California, one of the world’s most important commercial and sports fishing zones. Sardine fishermen may have a difficult season, incurring greater costs as they try to locate viable schools of fish.

A NASA climatologist predicts that California (USA) will be on the receiving end of more winter storms (January-March), and heavier rain, than usual. This increases the risk of hazardous mudslides in some coastal communities. It could also mean more mosquitoes, and an increased chance of contracting dengue fever or chikungunya.

What is the longer term outlook?

The first map shows likely precipitation anomalies for early next year (Spring). Areas shaded brown are areas expected to receive less rainfall than normal. Areas shaded light blue through green are predicted to get more rain than usual.

Spring precipitation anomalies

Spring precipitation anomalies in a strong El Niño year. Source: CNA

The second map shows summer precipitation anomalies. A significant reduction in rainfall is expected across most of central Mexico, though some areas in southern Mexico will likely get more rainfall than normal.

Summer precipitation anomalies in a strong El Niño year. Source: CNA

Summer precipitation anomalies in a strong El Niño year. Source: CNA

We end with one piece of good news for our more active readers. Previous El Niño events have brought great surfing to the west coast of Mexico, so make your travel and hotel plans as soon as possible.

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Hurricane Patricia, a Category 5 hurricane, about to hit the Pacific coast

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Oct 232015
 

Follow-up, 28 October 2015: In the event, Hurricane Patricia did not cause anywhere near the catastrophic damage that it might have. This was partly because it was narrower than most hurricanes of its size and happened to continue on a path that missed the major resorts of Puerto Vallarta and Manzanillo, and partly because it then rapidly lost strength as it smashed into the Western Sierra Madre (Sierra Madre Occidental), though it did bring torrential rain to many areas. This post-hurricane report in the Mexico Daily News summarizes the impacts.

Post-hurricane photos and video:

Original post:

As of Friday morning (23 October), Hurricane Patricia is a Category 5 hurricane, the highest rating possible, and “now the strongest ever hurricane to hit the eastern north Pacific region”, according to World Meteorological Organization spokeswoman Clare Nullis, citing an update from the US National Hurricane Center (NHC).

Hurricane Patricia’s central pressure of 880mb is the lowest for any tropical cyclone globally for over 30 years.

The maximum sustained winds associated with Hurricane Patricia are up to 325 km/hr (200 mi/hr), “enough to get a plane in the air and keep it flying”.

hurricane-patricia-2

Hurricane Patricia is heading towards land at 16 km/hr (10 mi/hr), and is currently predicted to make landfall somewhere close to Manzanillo in the state of Colima, later today (Friday 23 October).

Map of Pacific Coast beaches. Copyright 2010 Tony Burton. All rights reserved.

Map of Pacific Coast beaches. Copyright 2010 Tony Burton. All rights reserved.

Hurricane warnings are in effect for several towns along the Pacific coast, including the major resort of Puerto Vallarta. Puerto Vallarta has established 18 shelter locations to house evacuees.

People living in the coastal areas of the states of Nayarit, Jalisco, Colima and Michoacán are all likely to experience severe impacts from this hurricane. The hurricane could cause a significant storm surge up to 2 meters high along much of the coast, and potentially up to 6 meters high in some bays such as Barra de Navidad-Melaque, and neighboring Cuestacomate.

hurricane-patricia

Officials are warning residents to prepare for torrential rain (in excess of 300 mm is expected in some areas), exceptionally-strong winds and power outages, and are readying emergency shelters. Air traffic is already being affected, with delays reported for various domestic flights.

Mexico’s national water commission, CONAGUA, reports that the government has 1,782 temporary shelters available in the states of Michoacán, Colima, and Jalisco with a combined capacity of more than 258,000 people. Around 50,000 people should have been evacuated before the hurricane hits land, according to Mexican Civil Protection agencies.

Once it makes landfall, the hurricane is expected to weaken quickly, though inland areas, such as Guadalajara and the Lake Chapala area, will receive heavy rain.

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Thirty years ago: the 1985 Mexico City earthquakes, a major disaster

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Sep 172015
 

The worst earthquake disaster in modern Mexican history occurred thirty years ago this week. On Thursday 19 September 1985 a magnitude 8.1 earthquake struck at 7:19 a.m. and lasted a full two minutes. It was followed by a 7.5-magnitude earthquake 36 hours later.

Mexico's position in relation to tectonic plates

Mexico’s position in relation to tectonic plates.Map: Geo-Mexico.com; all rights reserved

These earthquakes resulted from the Cocos Plate (see map) pushing under the North American Plate. While the epicenters were 50 km off Mexico’s Pacific coast, near the Michoacán-Guerrero border, most of the damage occurred 350 km (215 mi) away in Mexico City because the city center’s subsoil, being former lakebed, is very unstable. The clay and silt beneath the city is up to 50 m thick in the area that received most damage. Geologists have likened the effects of the earthquake to the shaking of a bowl of jelly.

Further damage was caused by liquefaction, a process in which water is squeezed rapidly through the pore spaces in soil, dramatically reducing its cohesion. The sediments beneath Mexico City amplified the ground motions during the earthquakes and many buildings were stressed well beyond building code limits.

Damage from Mexico City's 1985 earthquake

Damage from Mexico City’s 1985 earthquake. Photo: Tony Burton; all rights reserved

Damage estimates range upward to 10,000 deaths, 50,000 injured and 100,000 homeless. More than 500 buildings collapsed, and a further 600 of the 3000 damaged structures were subsequently razed to the ground. The destruction was concentrated in a relatively small area near the city center and included many public buildings, such as government offices, as well as 11 hospitals and clinics, numerous multi-story apartment blocks, 11 hotels and 10 banks. More than 1600 school classrooms were damaged.

Buildings of between 6 and 15 stories were especially hard hit. The underbelly of the city was exposed; dozens of textile sweatshops were destroyed. The damages revealed many instances of poor construction standards and of poor enforcement of building codes. Well-built high rises such as the Latin American tower, designed to be earthquake-proof, were unscathed.

The total cost to the Mexican economy was estimated to exceed $5 billion, equivalent to 2% of the country’s GDP (Gross Domestic Product).

The disastrous 1985 earthquakes led to much tighter building codes, equal or superior to anywhere in the world, and to the formation of well-trained emergency search and rescue brigades. They also resulted in the establishment of a Seismic Alarm System which provides a 50-second warning for any earthquake measuring over 6.0 on the Richter scale occurring off the coast of Guerrero or Michoacán.

This is an excerpt from chapter 2 of Geo-Mexico: the geography and dynamics of modern Mexico.  Many more details of Mexico’s geology and landforms are analyzed in other parts of the book; take a look using Amazon.com’s Look Inside feature before buying your copy today!

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An evaluation of Mexico’s early warning system for hurricanes (tropical cyclones).

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Aug 312015
 

This interesting graph comes from “El sistema de alerta temprana ante ciclones tropicales desde una perspectiva de riesgo” (“The early warning system for tropical cyclones from a risk perspective”) by Dr. Víctor Orlando Magaña Rueda and his fellow researchers Adalberto Tejeda Martínez and Gustavo Vázquez Cruz, published in: H2O Gestión del agua #1 (Sacmex, 2014).

It shows the economic losses (line graph) and loss of lives (bar graph) resulting from hydro-meteorological events between 1980 and 2013. Some major storm events are named on the graph. The two background colors divide the period into before and after the introduction, in 2000, of Mexico’s early warning system (Sistema de Alerta Temprana ante Ciclones Tropicales, Siat-CT).

Graph from

Graph from Magaña et al (2014)

Overall, the trends are for some reduction over time in loss of life, but a rapid escalation since 2004 in the economic costs associated with storms and other extreme weather events. This echoes the changes seen in impacts around the world for most hazard types in recent decades.

Given that lives are still being lost, however, the researchers suggest that it is time to re-evaluate Mexico’s early warning system for tropical cyclones. Storms such as Wilma and Stan in 2005, Alex in 2010 or Manuel and Ingrid in 2013, they say, show that the system has not been entirely successful in its principal objective of avoiding loss of life.

The increase in economic costs of hazard events is sometimes attributed to insurance payments but in Mexico’s case, and taking the example of Hurricanes Ingrid and Manuel, only about 20% of total losses were covered by insurance, according to the Mexican Insurers Association (Asociación Mexicana de Instituciones de Seguros). Mexico’s federal Finance Secretariat now assumes that hazard impacts will amount to 1% of GDP a year, a figure that reduces the nation’s economic growth rate by about 0.1% a year.

The authors argue that, in addition to an improved early warning system, other changes are needed in order to reduce vulnerability. Specifically, the system should be modified to:

  • target the most vulnerable sectors of the population so that alerts reach them in ample time
  • incorporate periodic reviews, and allow for modifications to be implemented
  • be fully integrated into all levels of government (national, state and local) and the programs of all government agencies

In addition, they suggest that the reliance on the early warning system on the Saffir-Simpson scale, first developed in the 1970s, as a measure of likely damage, should be reconsidered, given that some recent storms (e.g. Stan in 2005, and Manuel in 2013) have led to far greater damage than would have been expected from their position on that scale. The researchers point out that the current model does not do well in predicting local variations in impacts.

As a result, they propose that identifying categories of risk is at least as important as categories of storm intensity. For example, they suggest that the risks associated with both the intensity and accumulation of precipitation should be taken into account, combined with soil conditions and the water levels of streams and reservoirs. Studies of the spatial distribution of impacts after storms could help identify risk factors and suggest ways to improve future warnings.

Even with an efficient early warning system, other actions are still needed. Buildings could be subject to more stringent construction regulations, especially in those coastal areas that are most at risk, while better programs of beach restoration, environmental planning and hazard event response are also needed.

There is no such thing as a perfect prediction and early warning system, but hopefully Mexico will lead the way in Latin America in reducing human fatalities from hazard events.

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Case study of Hurricane Alex (30 June–1 July 2010)

Mexico has highest rate of death from lightning strikes in the Americas

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Aug 062015
 

Last year, three Mexico City climate researchers published a comprehensive study of the 7300+ deaths due to lightning in Mexico during the period 1979 to 2011.

In “Deaths by Lightning in Mexico (1979–2011): Threat or Vulnerability?“, G. B. Raga, M. G. de la Parra and Beata Kucienska examined the distribution of fatalities due to lighting, looking for links to population density, vulnerability and other factors.

The number of deaths from lightning averaged 230 a year for the period studied. Given Mexico’s population, this means a rate of 2.72 fatalities from lightning for every million people. This is the highest rate in the Americas.

Fatalities were not distributed evenly. Seven of Mexico’s 32 states accounted for 60% of all lightning fatalities. Almost one-quarter of all deaths from lightning occurred in the State of México. Other states with high rates included Michoacán, Oaxaca and Guanajuato.

More than 45% of all deaths from lightning were young males under the age of 25 (with those aged 10 to 19 at particular risk). Overall, far fewer females died from lightning than males, though for females, too, the highest rates were for the under-25 age group.

Most deaths happened in the first half of the rainy season, between June and August, when thunderstorms are most likely.

Lightning incidence, North America, 2012-2014

Lightning incidence, North America, 2012-2014. Credit: Vaisala

What do all these numbers mean?

The incidence of lightning strikes in not equal across the country. For example, in the period 2012-2014 (see map) there were far more lightning events in in central and southern Mexico than in the northern part of the country and the Baja California Peninsula. This means that there is no clear connection between deaths by lightning and population density. However, neither is there a clear connection between deaths by lightning and the places where most lightning strikes occur.

The key factor is not just how likely a lightning strike is to occur in a particular place but also how vulnerable the local populace is. Some sectors of the population are much more vulnerable than others. Those working outdoors, for example, are at higher risk than those working indoors. This makes rural workers more vulnerable than urban workers. It also makes younger people more vulnerable than older people.

Education and awareness also play a part. Many countries have seen a dramatic fall in deaths from lightning as a direct result of launching campaigns to make people more aware and provide education about safety precautions. In the USA, fewer than 40 people now die each year from lightning, compared to about 400 in the 1930s, when the population was smaller.

For this reason, the study also concluded that the large number of deaths in Mexico is partly due to “the government’s failure to implement education and prevention strategies in communities living and working in vulnerable conditions”. Sadly, this means that there will probably be further tragic incidents similar to the one that took the lives of several members of the same family last month in the remote mountainous community of Mesa Cuata in Guanajuato.

Reference:

G. B. Raga, M. G. de la Parra, and Beata Kucienska, 2014: “Deaths by Lightning in Mexico (1979–2011): Threat or Vulnerability?”. Weather, Climate & Society, 6, 434–444.

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Recent eruptions of Colima Volcano, el Volcán de Colima

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Jul 122015
 

Colima Volcano (aka el Volcán de Colima or el Volcán de Fuego) continues to erupt, displaying its fiery temper by throwing massive plumes of ash and smoke several kilometers into the air. One recent eruption caused a plume of ash seven kilometers high.

 

Following the eruptions of 10 and 11 July 2015 (see video clip from Webcams de México), a state of emergency has been declared by the state of Colima in 5 municipalities: Colima, Comala, Coquimatlán, Cuauhtémoc and Villa de Álvarez. This enables rapid access to state and federal funds in preparing to cope with any potential disaster.

A precautionary evacuation has been ordered of all communities within a 12-kilometer radius of the volcano’s crater. The 50-60 residents of the closest community to the volcano, La Yerbabuena, live barely eight kilometers (five miles) away from the crater. Five centimeters (two inches) of ash fell on La Yerbabuena in the past few days.

Authorities are concerned that heavy summer rains could generate dangerous and very fast-moving lahars. Lahars are mudflows of volcanic ash, pumice and rocks; they can travel at velocities of up to 100 km/h and move huge boulders and objects as large as houses.

Where is Colima Volcano (Volcán de Colima)?

Location of Colima Volcano

Location of Colima Volcano (Volcán de Colima). Credit: Tony Burton / Geo-Mexico

The volcano is one of the westernmost volcanoes in Mexico’s Volcanic Axis, which straddles the country from west to east. Colima Volcano’s summit is only 8 km (5 miles) from the inactive Nevado of Colima volcano, Mexico’s sixth-highest peak, which rises 4260 m (13,976 ft) above sea level. (Lovers of geographical trivia should note that, despite their names, the summits of both volcanoes are actually located in the state of Jalisco, not in the state of Colima.)

Colima Volcano is considered one of Mexico’s most dangerous volcanoes. Numerous villages in its shadow keep a wary eye on its level of activity, and emergency evacuations have become a regular event over the past fifty years.

How high is Colima Volcano?

The elevation of Colima Volcano is officially given as 3820 m (12,533 ft) above sea level. In the past 400 years, it has been the most active volcano in Mexico, having erupted at least 30 times since 1576. Recent activity means that this exact height may no longer be correct.

The eruption of Colima Volcano on 21 January 2015, shown in this short video, is typical of recent activity.

How often does it erupt?

Historically, the eruptions of the volcano have fallen into a definite cyclical pattern with periods of activity, each lasting about 50 years, interspersed with periods of dormancy. The first cycle of activity (after the Spanish arrived in Mexico) was between 1576 and 1611. Major eruptions occurred in 1680 and 1690, and further complete cycles occurred between 1749 and 1818, and from 1869 to 1913.

The current eruption cycle

Most geologists agree that current activity is part of the fifth cycle, which began in 1961. Judging by past performance, we should be nearing the end of this cycle, though volcanoes can be extremely unpredictable, so don’t bet your house on this happening within the next decade.

Activity has intensified in the past couple of years. In early 2013, we reported that Colima Volcano had erupted, destroying a lava dome first created in 2007 and later that year we looked at how Popocatapetl Volcano and Colima Volcano continued to erupt. At that time, experts monitoring the volcano were reporting up to 200 eruptive events a day, with numerous minor emissions of lava. Colima Volcano has been exhibiting four distinct types of volcanic activity in recent years:

  • lava dome growth
  • explosive eruptions
  • flank collapse
  • lava flows.

In early 2015, activity began to intensify, with several spectacular eruptions, sending ash and dust up to 8 or 9 kilometers (5-6 miles) into the air. Ash fell on towns up to 25 kilometers (15 miles) away from the volcano, in locations including Tuxpan, Zapotiltic and Ciudad Guzmán, but with no loss of life, or significant property damage.

The volcano can be viewed via this permanent fixed webcam operated by Webcams de Mexico. Below the main image on that site are links to 1-minute time-condensed videos showing the past 24 hours of activity.

Three maps (PDF format, Spanish-language keys and text) showing the areas likely to be affected by the volcanic hazards associated with Colima Volcanocan be found via this webpage of Mexico’s National Center for Disaster Prevention (Centro Nacional de Prevención de Desastres, CENAPRED). :

The area around the Colima Volcano is described in more detail in chapter 15 of my Western Mexico, a Traveler’s Treasury (4th edition; Sombrero Books, 2013).

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Hurricane forecast and names for 2015

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Apr 202015
 

The 2015 hurricane season in Mexico for Pacific coast storms starts on 15 May and lasts until 30 November. For Atlantic storms, the hurricane season extends from 1 June to 30 November, though most hurricane activity is concentrated in the months from July to September. Hurricanes are also known as typhoons or tropical cyclones.

The table shows the World Meteorological Organization’s official list of 2015 tropical storm and hurricane names. Note that male and female names alternate. Names are often reused in future years, with the exception of the names of any particularly violent storms, which are officially “retired” from the list for a long time.

2015 Hurricane Names for the Atlantic, Gulf of Mexico and Caribbean
AnaGraceLarryRose
BillHenriMindySam
ClaudetteIdaNicholasTeresa
DannyJoaquinOdetteVictor
ErikaKatePeterWanda
Fred

2015 Hurricane Names for the Eastern Pacific
AndresGuillermoMartyTerry
BlancaHildaNoraVivian
CarlosIgnacioOlafWaldo
DoloresJimenaPatriciaXina
EnriqueKevinRickYork
FeliciaLindaSandraZelda

In their early season forecast for this year, Philip Klotzbach and William Gray, researchers at Colorado State University,  expect hurricane activity in the Atlantic to be below the 1981-2012 average. They predict that in the 2015 season 7 named storms will form in the Atlantic: 4 tropical storms, 2 moderate hurricanes (1 or 2 on the Saffir-Simpson scale), and 1 severe hurricanes (3, 4 or 5 on the Saffir-Simpson scale). These forecasts will be updated on 2 June and 31 July.

saffir-simpson-scaleAs expected, Pacific Ocean hurricanes were more common than usual in 2014, because it was an El Niño year. In 2014, there were 22 named storms (the highest total for 22 years), including a record-typing 16 hurricanes, of which 9 were major hurricanes. Hurricane activity in 2015 is also expected to be higher than the long-term average.

In 2015, for the Pacific coast, Mexico’s National Meteorological Service (Servicio Metrológico Nacional, SMN) is expecting 19 named storms: 8 tropical storms, 7 moderate hurricanes (1 or 2 on the Saffir-Simpson scale), and 4 severe hurricanes (3, 4 or 5 on the Saffir-Simpson scale). The SNM publishes regular updates on hurricane activity (in Spanish) on its webpage and via its Twitter account: @huracanconagua.

How accurate was the 2014 forecast?

The early season (May) prediction for 2014 (last year) was for 9 named storms in the Atlantic: 6 tropical storms, 2 moderate hurricanes and 1 severe hurricanes. This prediction proved to be the fairly accurate. In reality, the 2014 Atlantic season had 8 named storms: 2 tropical storms, 4 moderate hurricanes and 2 severe hurricanes

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Mexico’s vulnerability and readiness to adapt to climate change and other global challenges

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Mar 262015
 

The ND-GAIN Index, a project of the University of Notre Dame Global Adaptation Index (ND-GAIN), aims to help businesses and the public sector better prioritize investments for a more efficient response to the immediate global challenges ahead.

The ND-Gain Index summarizes two key characteristics of a country:

  • its vulnerability to climate change and other global challenges, and
  • its readiness to improve resilience.

Both characteristics are compound indices, based on numerous indicators, scored on a scale of 0 to 1. For vulnerability, lower scores are better; for readiness, higher scores are better.

Vulnerability measures a country’s exposure, sensitivity and ability to adapt to the negative impact of climate change. ND-GAIN measures the overall vulnerability by considering vulnerability in six life-supporting sectors – food, water, health, ecosystem service, human habitat and infrastructure.

Three vulnerability components are considered (each has several indicators):

  • Exposure: The degree to which a system is exposed to significant climate change from a biophysical perspective. It is a component of vulnerability independent of socio-economic context. Exposure indicators are projected impacts for the coming decades.
  • Sensitivity: The extent to which a country is dependent upon a sector negatively affected by climate hazard, or the proportion of the population particularly susceptible to a climate change hazard. A country’s sensitivity can vary over time.
  • Adaptive Capacity: The availability of social resources for sector-specific adaptation. In some cases, these capacities reflect sustainable adaptation solutions. In other cases, they reflect capacities to put newer, more sustainable adaptations into place. Adaptive capacity also varies over time.

Readiness targets those portions of the economy, governance and society that affect the speed and efficiency of absorption and implementation of Adaptation projects.

Three Readiness components are taken into account:

  • Economic Readiness: Economic readiness captures the ability of a country’s business environment to accept investment that could be applied to adaptation that reduces vulnerability (reduces sensitivity and improves adaptive capacity).
  • Governance Readiness: Governance readiness captures the institutional factors that enhance application of investment for adaptation.
  • Social Readiness: Social readiness captures the factors such as social inequality, ICT infrastructure, education and innovation, that enhance the mobility of investment and promote adaptation actions.
ND-Gain Index: Trends in Mexico's vulnearablity and readiness

ND-Gain Index: Trends in Mexico’s vulnerablity and readiness

In the case of Mexico (see image), from 1995 to 2013, vulnerability has steadily improved, from a high of 0.362 in 1996 to 0.315 in 2013. Mexico’s vulnerability has decreased for each of the six sectors except infrastructure.

Over the same period of time, readiness in Mexico has also improved, from a low of 0.387 in 1995 to a high of 0.464 in 2013.

The trends of lower vulnerability scores and higher readiness score for Mexico mean that while adaptation challenges still exist, Mexico is well positioned to adapt to future challenges. On the overall ND-Gain Index, Mexico is the 47th least vulnerable country and the 91st most ready country, for an overall rank of #74, of the 190+ countries in the rankings.